market outlook
We remain in a rising tariff‐risk environment that is fueling broad risk‐off flows into safe havens—our focus remains on gold, which has held near 3,300 and looks set to grind higher as equities (notably the S&P 500 and NASDAQ) face sideways chop and potential
market outlook
We are tracking renewed US tariff threats (50% on copper and 25–40% across Asia) due August 1, which is driving risk-off flows into safe-havens. Gold, trading around 3300, remains our favoured ballast, with any dip toward 3165 seen as a shallow retracement rather than a trend change. Copper is
market outlook
We remain focused on escalating U.S. tariff threats that will soon hit as many as 100 nations, with Japan and South Korea already facing a 25% levy starting August 1 and others between 30–40%. The extension of the negotiation window to August 1 provides little comfort after 90
market outlook
Global Financial Condition Highlights * Tariff risk front and center: letters to as many as 100 countries will set tariffs on August 1 unless deals are struck by July 9, raising the odds of a fresh “tariff scare.” * US labor remains strong: June nonfarm payrolls surprised at +147 K (vs. 106
market outlook
We entered the day bracing for a tariff scare ahead of the July 9 deadline—and got exactly that with a 20% levy on Vietnam and talk of extending threats elsewhere—keeping USD under pressure and gold bid. A sharp ADP miss stoked expectations for sub-100k nonfarm payrolls, but today’
market outlook
We see growing US dollar pressure into the July 9 tariff deadline, amplified by renewed threats of 30–35% levies on Japan, which should underpin further gold upside once resistance near 3,370 is decisively cleared. The Fed’s data-dependent approach keeps rate-cut timing in question, so a dovish surprise
market outlook
Global Financial Condition Highlights * Federal Reserve on hold, prioritizing potential tariff-driven inflation over the modest Core PCE uptick (2.7% YoY vs. 2.6% forecast). * US GDP disappointed but offset by solid jobless claims; overall mixed macro backdrop. * Tariff developments—US-Canada digital services tax saga and looming July 9 deadlines
market outlook
We’re focused on the May Core PCE release at 8:30 AM (consensus +0.1% MoM, Goldman +0.18%). Core PCE is largely baked in from recent CPI/PPI prints, so we’d need a surprise >0.2% to tilt markets risk-off—boosting the USD and pressuring equities
market outlook
We’re seeing Middle East de-escalation cool off safe-haven bids, putting short-term pressure on gold toward the 3 250–3 280 area even as the broader macro drivers (fiscal risks, tariffs, de-dollarization, central bank buying) remain bullish into year-end. The U.S. dollar looks set for another leg lower ahead
market outlook
Global Financial Condition Highlights * Geopolitical tensions remain the dominant driver: U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, and continued uncertainty are keeping risk-off premiums high. * Federal Reserve: dot-plot still shows two cuts this cycle. Powell’s June press conference was broadly balanced,
market outlook
Rising uncertainty over a possible US strike on Iran is keeping markets in risk-off mode. Safe-haven assets (USD, CHF, JPY and gold) are firming, while equities, high-beta currencies and crypto remain under pressure. We observe that any direct US involvement would likely trigger a sharp—but short-lived—flight to safety,
market outlook
Markets are braced for a dovish Fed after today’s FOMC: the dot plot shows two rate cuts this year and Chair Powell is expected to lean toward easier policy, setting the stage for a July cut. However, escalating US–Iran tensions are capping dollar weakness and triggering safe-haven bids