market outlook
We see a broad‐based US dollar rally, led by yen weakness following post-election flows in Japan and growing expectations of BoJ intervention to curb excessive FX volatility—USD/JPY has pushed above 148 amid Treasury pressure for a lower pair to shrink the trade deficit. Oddly, gold has powered
market outlook
We enter the week with a clear macro bias: Japan’s election of a hawkish, export-driven leader has sent the yen sharply lower and restored gold’s mantle as the go-to haven. In Europe, the surprise resignation of France’s prime minister has kept the euro on the back foot,
market outlook
Global Financial Condition Highlights * US federal government remains in shutdown, halting key BLS data – Fed faces data blackout and growing labor‐market drag from furloughs. * Shutdown’s GDP hit and rising Fed “insurance-cut” motivation = dovish Fed tilt → USD bearish, Gold bullish. * Geopolitical tensions persist (Middle East, Ukraine/Russia intelligence strikes)
market outlook
We remain in a USD-bearish environment as the ongoing US government shutdown freezes BLS releases and a softer-than-expected ADP private payrolls print reinforces concerns over labor-market strength, driving gold toward the 3,900 area. Equities are buoyed by heightened Fed easing bets, while bitcoin enters its seasonally bullish phase. Euro
market outlook
We’ve entered a U.S. government shutdown, halting BLS data and effectively forcing the Fed toward an “insurance” rate cut this month. That dynamic is bearish for the dollar and supportive for gold, which—after outperforming seasonally in early October—is likely to press higher despite near-term risk/reward
market outlook
We remain cautious as markets increasingly price in an imminent U.S. government shutdown that would delay all economic releases, force the Fed into an “insurance” rate cut in October, weaken the dollar and bolster safe havens. Geopolitical tensions—from a more proactive U.S. military posture to renewed Russia
market outlook
Global Financial Condition Highlights * Fed remains dovish and focused on downside labor-market risks despite firm inflation prints; market still pricing in rate cuts beginning in October, with NFP as the key catalyst. * U.S. government shutdown risk is elevated—could delay data releases and force assumption of worse labor outcomes,
market outlook
We see the dollar caught in a tactical relief rally on quarter-end rebalancing flows, even as Fed rhetoric remains dovish and labor data shows early signs of softening—keeping our long-term USD-bear view intact. Upcoming US jobs releases, especially next week’s NFP, will be the critical catalyst: a softer
market outlook
We remain positioned for broad US dollar softness as Chair Powell is expected to reiterate a dovish bias, reinforcing the recent bullish engulfing on EUR-USD and keeping upside momentum intact barring a major PMI miss. The pound stays under pressure given deteriorating UK public finances and deeply disappointing PMI readings,
market outlook
Global Financial Condition Highlights * FOMC signaled two more rate cuts this year, shifting its focus to a weakening U.S. labor market (dovish Fed). * Bank of Japan saw two dissenting votes for a hike—first since December 2024—making an October rate increase a real possibility (hawkish BoJ). * A technical
market outlook
We’ve seen a classic “sell the fact” pullback in dollar pairs and gold after the Fed’s dovish guidance, but the real story today is the Bank of Japan’s hawkish surprise—two dissenters voting for a rate hike—which pushes USD/JPY towards 142.00 as Fed cuts
market outlook
We remain aligned with the dovish pivot at yesterday’s FOMC: Powell’s emphasis on shifting labor-market risks signals an extended easing cycle, reinforcing a bearish USD bias and underpinning gold’s medium-term trajectory toward 3,800. The “sell-the-fact” correction in both USD-pairs and precious metals looks temporary—we’re