Risk sentiment has been buoyed by a dovish US CPI print (Core MoM 0.1% vs 0.3% forecast) and soft PPI, underscoring fading tariff-inflation fears and setting the stage for renewed Fed rate-cut speculation—boosting equities, crypto and high-beta FX (AUD, NZD, CAD) while keeping the USD under pressure.
US-China trade talks wrapped up with a framework to uphold the Geneva deal—enough to avert escalation but nothing to spark a big rally. That leaves markets in a mild risk-on mode: equities (S&P 500, Nasdaq) grinding higher toward all-time highs, safe havens (gold, CHF, JPY) under pressure,
US-China trade talks resume in London today, and the market is pricing in another modestly positive outcome—enough to keep risk appetite up but unlikely to deliver fresh tariff cuts. Equities and high-beta currencies (AUD, NZD) remain under tailwinds, while traditional safe-havens (gold, CHF, JPY) have come under pressure. Gold’
Global Financial Condition Highlights * US labor market is softening: ADP rose just +37k in May, ISM services declined, initial jobless claims jumped to 247k, and the June NFP printed 139k (vs. 126k expected) with downward revisions to March-April. * Second round of US-China trade talks kicks off in London; markets expect
Markets are caught between two forces: weak U.S. labor data (ADP +37 k, ISM services slump, claims at 247 k) points to a subdued NFP and dollar softening—which should underpin gold and EURUSD—yet upbeat U.S.–China trade talks have sparked a short-term dollar rally against EUR,
Recent US data—ADP employment and ISM services—show clear softening, with Goldman Sachs trimming its nonfarm payroll forecast to +110 k for Friday’s release. Tariff-related uncertainty post-April 2 and weakening labour metrics are fueling broad USD weakness, while gold retains a bullish bias amid persistent geopolitical risks. Attention
The dollar remains under pressure as a softer‐than‐expected US labour data sequence (JOLTS, ISM services, ADP and the key Friday NFP) looms, underpinning gold’s bullish bias around the 3,327 support pivot. EUR USD could dip toward 1.1070 ahead of the ECB decision before resuming its
Renewed US–China tariff frictions, spotlighted by Beijing’s recent accusations of Trump‐team violations, have reignited safe-haven flows and weighed on the dollar ahead of a busy US labor calendar (JOLTS, ADP, claims, NFP). Gold is holding around $3,350 with key support near $3,250 and upside into
Global Financial Condition Highlights * Trade‐policy uncertainty remains the dominant theme: • A U.S. court briefly blocked, then reinstated, Trump’s tariff authority. • New U.S. tech sanctions on China and doubled steel/aluminum levies (to 50% from June 4) keep risk elevated. * Risk sentiment is mixed—initial risk-on from
Markets are roiled by a federal court ruling blocking Trump’s tariff authority, only to have the US appeals court reinstate them, reviving trade‐policy risk. Since April 2 the tariff narrative has been re‐read as bearish USD/bullish safe havens: when tariffs are on, USD weakens and gold/
Markets have flipped into a clear risk-on mode after a U.S. federal court struck down President Trump’s tariff authority: equities are rallying into a seasonally strong window and high-beta currencies (AUD, NZD) are outperforming, while “low-beta” safe haven currencies (JPY, CHF) and gold are sold off. Paradoxically, USD
Markets have tilted back into risk-on after the U.S. delayed a planned 50% tariff on Europe from June 1 to July 9, giving equities and high-beta currencies like AUDUSD a lift while gold takes a breather. The dollar, paradoxically stronger today, is benefiting from the tariff “de-escalation” narrative and