Global Financial Condition Highlights * Trade tensions eased as the US-Japan deal (15% reciprocal tariffs; $550 bn investment) and a 15% US-EU tariff compromise were finalized, removing major sources of uncertainty. * Fed poised to adopt a dovish tone at Wednesday’s FOMC, laying groundwork for a September rate cut; President Trump’
We’re seeing a risk-on tilt as US–EU trade talks edge toward a deal, reducing tariff uncertainty. That dynamic is weighing on safe havens—gold may test its recent support just above 3 300 before resuming an uptrend, and the yen is under pressure as BoJ policy stays dovish
We’re seeing a clear shift into risk-on mode after the US–Japan trade deal removed significant tariff uncertainty and paved the way for stronger equity, commodity and high-beta FX demand (AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP). At the same time, a dovish Bank of Japan and political turnover in Tokyo are
Global Financial Condition Highlights * Fed leadership uncertainty – persistent rumors around Chair Powell’s potential dismissal keep the USD under pressure and bolster safe-haven demand. * Softer US producer inflation – June core PPI undershot forecasts, reinforcing a dovish tilt for monetary policy. * Geopolitical tensions – tariff threats on EU goods and continued Ukraine
We continue to view gold as fundamentally bullish amid lingering Fed uncertainty and mixed U.S. data, with the metal holding above its higher-timeframe support trendline and bumping up against near-term resistance around $3,350. While short-term chop may persist without a fresh catalyst, a decisive breakout would reinforce the
We saw another dovish PPI print yesterday (core PPI YoY 2.6% vs. 2.7% expected), reinforcing the view that underlying inflation is cooling and limiting the risk of another Fed hike. At the same time, persistent rumors that the Fed Chair could be dismissed remain a key tail risk.
We saw US inflation hold broadly in line with expectations—core CPI rose 0.2 MoM (vs. 0.3 forecast) and 2.9 YoY—while core PPI disappointed at 0.0 MoM and 2.6 YoY, pointing to continued disinflationary pressure ahead of the PCE report. The dollar has rallied
We see markets grapple with renewed U.S.–Russia sanctions rhetoric—threats of 100% tariffs in 50 days—and a Fed outlook supported by an inline July CPI report (Core CPI MoM +0.2% vs +0.3% exp; YoY +2.9% vs +2.9% exp). This geopolitical risk backdrop underpins
Global Financial Condition Highlights * Escalating U.S.–China/Canada/Europe tariff threats are driving a broader risk-off stance. * Political pressure on Fed Chair Powell (rumors of forced resignation) undermines dollar credibility. * Incoming announcements (Russia sanctions, U.S. CPI) add to near-term uncertainty and safe-haven demand. Currencies & Forex Markets * USD
We remain in a safe-haven regime as tariff letters to Canada and Europe ramp up risk-off pressure and White House scrutiny of the Fed chair undermines the dollar. Gold has cleared the 3,300 level on growing upside conviction, while bitcoin is leading crypto as an alternate haven. US equities
We remain in a rising tariff‐risk environment that is fueling broad risk‐off flows into safe havens—our focus remains on gold, which has held near 3,300 and looks set to grind higher as equities (notably the S&P 500 and NASDAQ) face sideways chop and potential
We are tracking renewed US tariff threats (50% on copper and 25–40% across Asia) due August 1, which is driving risk-off flows into safe-havens. Gold, trading around 3300, remains our favoured ballast, with any dip toward 3165 seen as a shallow retracement rather than a trend change. Copper is