We remain constructive on gold despite the recent shake-out, as central banks continue to diversify into bullion (gold now represents roughly 30% of FX+gold reserves) and our long-term fair-value model points toward much higher levels. Tomorrow’s FOMC is the next key catalyst: a dovish Fed would likely send
We see gold caught in a sharp pullback as markets price in the immediate 25 bp Fed cut, but our macro bias remains firmly bullish: ongoing central-bank accumulation, de-dollarization trends and dovish Fed rhetoric should drive a resumption above the 4,160–4,200 area once technical structure confirms. Oil
Global Financial Condition Highlights * US–China trade talks reached a consensus in Kuala Lumpur, averting the risk of 100% tariffs and rare-earth export curbs. * US CPI (October) printed softer than expected, reinforcing dovish Fed expectations ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC. * “Risk-on” sentiment prevails: equities, commodities, and procyclical currencies are bid;
We’re entering US CPI day with gold poised to rally in either scenario—soft data would cement a dovish Fed view and hot prints would stoke stagflation fears—keeping safe-haven flows supported around the low-4,000s and trendline support near 4,036. Volatility remains elevated, so knee-jerk moves are
Global Financial Condition Highlights * Sino-U.S. trade tensions remain the primary driver. Recent stop-start de-escalation headlines have produced whipsaw risk-on/risk-off flows. * The Fed’s dovish tone and announcement that Quantitative Tightening will end in coming months support risk assets and weigh on the USD, but geopolitics currently override monetary
We maintain a risk-off bias as US–China trade tensions show no sign of easing, driving equities (S&P 500, AUD, NZD) toward fresh lows while safe havens (JPY, CHF, gold) strengthen. The Swiss government warns that US tariffs are weighing on domestic industry, which reinforces CHF’s appeal
We saw Fed Chair Powell signal an end to quantitative tightening in the coming months, removing a modest USD‐supportive factor, while intensifying US–China tensions—most recently via Beijing’s rare-earth export controls—have pushed risk sentiment to the fore. In a renewed risk-off environment, equities and high-beta currencies
We’re seeing a tug-of-war between dovish Fed guidance—most notably the impending end to quantitative tightening—and renewed U.S.-China trade friction. Equities have ricocheted higher on the QT wind-down and dovish rhetoric, pushing the S&P 500 back toward its highs, though a breach of its
We’re seeing a tug-of-war between renewed risk-off selling and tentative hopes for de-escalation in the US–China trade spat. Equities have dipped into a familiar wash-out mid-week, but our base case is that any near-term slide in the S&P will be met with dip-buyers ahead of the
Global Financial Condition Highlights * The U.S. government shutdown extends into its fourth week, delaying key economic releases (CPI, NFP, unemployment) and clouding Fed policy guidance. * Geopolitical flashpoints (U.S.–China tariff threats, Middle East developments) drive frequent risk-on/risk-off swings. * Japan’s recent election has fueled JPY volatility, with
We remain in a safe-haven regime as the U.S. government shutdown drags on, keeping the dollar bid even as gold dips below the 4,000 level on a mid-week pullback. The lack of fresh U.S. data—CPI, NFP and more—is postponing Fed-sensitive catalysts, and when the shutdown
We’re seeing a curious convergence of dollar strength and a roaring gold market, a classic hallmark of safe-haven demand amid the U.S. government shutdown and mounting geopolitical tensions. With headline U.S. data delayed, all eyes are on the Fed Chair’s remarks for clues on how the