We remain positioned for a softer US dollar as markets ramp up expectations for a December Fed rate cut and a highly dovish incoming Fed chair. EUR/USD is eyeing a break back above the 1.1600 area, while NZD/USD – having seen the RBNZ pause its tightening cycle – could
Global Financial Condition Highlights * Fed officials (Williams via X.com) underscored “room for a near-term rate cut” and flagged rising downside risks to employment, pushing December cut odds to ~80%. * The BLS’s decision to delay October/November NFP releases until after the Dec. 10 FOMC meeting reduces fresh data
We see the US dollar grind higher after hawkish-leaning FOMC minutes and the revelation that October/November payroll data won’t arrive until after the Dec. 10 Fed meeting—cutting the market’s December rate-cut odds to roughly 30%. Today’s delayed September NFP print was mixed (119k jobs added,
Global Financial Condition Highlights * U.S. labor data shows growing weakness (ADP down, September NFP is old news but likely soft), reinforcing expectations for a December Fed rate cut. Fed voting is split, but a weak jobs report should push cut odds from ~45% toward 80%. * Government shutdown has ended,
We note that the US government shutdown has ended but markets remain risk-off as participants digest hawkish Fed rhetoric – several voting members have signaled a preference to hold rates into year-end, pushing December cut odds lower and leaving the bar high for further easing. In FX, EUR is showing resilience
We’re seeing a clear dovish tilt across G10 as UK labour data disappointed—unemployment climbed to 5% and wage growth cooled—cementing market bets on a BoE rate cut in December and weighing on GBP, notably versus EUR. In the US, the government shutdown has shown up in private‐
We view the end of the US government shutdown as removing a key Fed risk, boosting the odds of a December rate cut and softening the dollar—a view reinforced by alternative data pointing to a roughly 50k decline in nonfarm payrolls. Gold is benefiting from the dovish tilt, while
Global Financial Condition Highlights * US government shutdown has ended, removing a key uncertainty that had forced the Fed to “pause.” * Fed-funds futures now price in roughly a 66% chance of a December rate cut, up from ~63% last week. * Pending rescheduling of delayed labor‐market data (unemployment claims, September NFP)
We’re seeing yield-cut bets build across both the Fed and the BOE this morning. Fed speakers (notably the more dovish members) have doubled down on a December rate cut despite mixed data, keeping our dollar supported in the near term but capping further gains until the cut probability is
We’re seeing a firmer US dollar after ADP and ISM services surprised to the upside, pushing back on December rate-cut bets and keeping DXY near 100.2. EUR/USD is capped around 1.1544–1.1550 and looks set to roll over, while GBP/USD remains vulnerable amid a
Global Financial Condition Highlights * The Fed’s October 29 press conference was decidedly hawkish: December rate cut “far from a forgone conclusion,” with committee views highly split. Markets have repriced December cut odds from ~95% to ~40-45%. * Ongoing U.S. government shutdown delays key economic releases, reinforcing near-term data uncertainty
We remain constructive on gold despite the recent shake-out, as central banks continue to diversify into bullion (gold now represents roughly 30% of FX+gold reserves) and our long-term fair-value model points toward much higher levels. Tomorrow’s FOMC is the next key catalyst: a dovish Fed would likely send