We remain positioned for a softer US dollar as markets ramp up expectations for a December Fed rate cut and a highly dovish incoming Fed chair. EUR/USD is eyeing a break back above the 1.1600 area, while NZD/USD – having seen the RBNZ pause its tightening cycle – could
Global Financial Condition Highlights * Fed officials (Williams via X.com) underscored “room for a near-term rate cut” and flagged rising downside risks to employment, pushing December cut odds to ~80%. * The BLS’s decision to delay October/November NFP releases until after the Dec. 10 FOMC meeting reduces fresh data
We see the US dollar grind higher after hawkish-leaning FOMC minutes and the revelation that October/November payroll data won’t arrive until after the Dec. 10 Fed meeting—cutting the market’s December rate-cut odds to roughly 30%. Today’s delayed September NFP print was mixed (119k jobs added,
Global Financial Condition Highlights * U.S. labor data shows growing weakness (ADP down, September NFP is old news but likely soft), reinforcing expectations for a December Fed rate cut. Fed voting is split, but a weak jobs report should push cut odds from ~45% toward 80%. * Government shutdown has ended,
We note that the US government shutdown has ended but markets remain risk-off as participants digest hawkish Fed rhetoric – several voting members have signaled a preference to hold rates into year-end, pushing December cut odds lower and leaving the bar high for further easing. In FX, EUR is showing resilience