market outlook
Dollar saw a modest pullback on soft CPI data, but remains on track for further short-term strength against EUR, CHF and JPY amid optimism over US–China trade-talk extensions; longer term Jay projects a 10–15% dollar decline as President Trump leans toward rate cuts and FX “rebalancing.” Equities are
market outlook
The market is riding a risk-on wave after the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day tariff pause (10% on U.S. exports to China, 30% on Chinese exports to the U.S.), lifting equities and the dollar while pressuring gold and defensive FX (CHF, JPY). Fed speakers and
market outlook
Global Financial Condition Highlights * Fed remains hawkish on the margin: Powell’s “wait and see” keeps rate-cut bets at bay, underpinning USD strength. * U.S.-China trade deal struck in Geneva over the weekend—both sides agreed to deep tariff cuts (China to 10% for 90 days; U.S. to
market outlook
Over recent sessions, the financial markets have been driven by positive trade developments between the US and China, with expectations of tariffs being reduced significantly—potentially from 145% to around 50%—which bolsters risk-on sentiment. This has strengthened the dollar, supported equities, and boosted commodities like oil and cryptocurrencies, notably
market outlook
The markets are currently bullish on risk assets, driven by positive developments in US-China trade negotiations and indications of a potential tariff reduction from the US. Trump has softened his stance, hinting at a significant decline in tariffs from around 160% toward a more manageable level, which supports risk-on sentiment.
market outlook
Macro markets remain cautiously bullish with a focus on US-China trade developments and geopolitical tensions. The USD is supported by reassurances that Federal Reserve Chair Powell won’t be ousted, keeping gold under pressure short-term despite a structurally bullish outlook driven by late-2024/early-2025 central bank gold demand. Recent inflation
market outlook
Global Financial Condition Highlights * The risk-on sentiment persists, driven by optimism over trade negotiations, especially with India and potentially South Korea and Japan, supporting equities and risk assets. * US economic data remains weak short-term, but markets are forward-looking, anticipating trade deal progress to lift macro outlook by mid-year. * Inflation in
market outlook
The macro environment remains risk-on, driven by ongoing optimism around US trade negotiations and geopolitical de-escalation. Equity markets, including the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Bitcoin, are trending higher, supported by expectations of positive tariff developments with India and potentially South Korea and Japan. The US dollar is bullish,
market outlook
The markets remain in a risk-on tone, fueled by the expectation of a forthcoming US trade deal—likely with India, Korea, or Japan—despite mixed European tariff engagement. US data is pivotal this week, with resilient GDP and employment figures needed to sustain the risk appetite; recession fears are underpriced,
market outlook
I’m sorry for missing yesterday. The entire Spain experienced a blackout, and I was among the unfortunate who had no power or mobile signal until after midnight. Global Financial Condition Highlights * Tensions around US-China trade negotiations remain delicate, with ongoing backchannel contacts and conflicting public statements. Positive signals on
market outlook
Global markets are currently in a risk-on mode, driven by positive developments in trade negotiations, notably potential agreements involving India and sector-specific tariff exemptions from China. The outlook for US-China trade talks appears cautiously optimistic, with indications that the US is actively engaged in negotiations, although China disputes some claims.
market outlook
Risk appetite fluctuates amid US-China trade negotiations, with market sentiment swaying between optimism and caution. Gold under pressure, USDCHF shows technical bullish signals.