market outlook
Markets are caught between two forces: weak U.S. labor data (ADP +37 k, ISM services slump, claims at 247 k) points to a subdued NFP and dollar softening—which should underpin gold and EURUSD—yet upbeat U.S.–China trade talks have sparked a short-term dollar rally against EUR,
market outlook
Recent US data—ADP employment and ISM services—show clear softening, with Goldman Sachs trimming its nonfarm payroll forecast to +110 k for Friday’s release. Tariff-related uncertainty post-April 2 and weakening labour metrics are fueling broad USD weakness, while gold retains a bullish bias amid persistent geopolitical risks. Attention
market outlook
The dollar remains under pressure as a softer‐than‐expected US labour data sequence (JOLTS, ISM services, ADP and the key Friday NFP) looms, underpinning gold’s bullish bias around the 3,327 support pivot. EUR USD could dip toward 1.1070 ahead of the ECB decision before resuming its
market outlook
Renewed US–China tariff frictions, spotlighted by Beijing’s recent accusations of Trump‐team violations, have reignited safe-haven flows and weighed on the dollar ahead of a busy US labor calendar (JOLTS, ADP, claims, NFP). Gold is holding around $3,350 with key support near $3,250 and upside into
market outlook
Global Financial Condition Highlights * Trade‐policy uncertainty remains the dominant theme: • A U.S. court briefly blocked, then reinstated, Trump’s tariff authority. • New U.S. tech sanctions on China and doubled steel/aluminum levies (to 50% from June 4) keep risk elevated. * Risk sentiment is mixed—initial risk-on from
market outlook
Markets are roiled by a federal court ruling blocking Trump’s tariff authority, only to have the US appeals court reinstate them, reviving trade‐policy risk. Since April 2 the tariff narrative has been re‐read as bearish USD/bullish safe havens: when tariffs are on, USD weakens and gold/
market outlook
Markets have flipped into a clear risk-on mode after a U.S. federal court struck down President Trump’s tariff authority: equities are rallying into a seasonally strong window and high-beta currencies (AUD, NZD) are outperforming, while “low-beta” safe haven currencies (JPY, CHF) and gold are sold off. Paradoxically, USD
market outlook
Markets have tilted back into risk-on after the U.S. delayed a planned 50% tariff on Europe from June 1 to July 9, giving equities and high-beta currencies like AUDUSD a lift while gold takes a breather. The dollar, paradoxically stronger today, is benefiting from the tariff “de-escalation” narrative and
market outlook
Global Financial Condition Highlights * US credit downgrade and massive fiscal expansion (the “Big Beautiful Bill”) are eroding confidence in the dollar and bond markets. * Capital is rotating out of US assets – bonds down, equities soft, USD broadly weaker. * Asia-led dollar selling continues to confirm a “sell USD” regime. Currencies &
market outlook
US markets remain under pressure as a credit downgrade and a $3.8 trillion tax-cut bill have sparked capital outflows: bonds and the dollar are down, equities choppy with a slight bearish tilt. Asia-led dollar selling persists, driving gold to fresh highs and bitcoin to all-time peaks as investors seek
market outlook
The US credit-rating downgrade last Friday has triggered broad dollar weakness—USD, bonds and equities are all under pressure—fueling a fresh leg higher in gold (now making new hourly highs) and a rally in EUR/USD toward the 1.18-1.20 area. China’s recent easing of bullion-inflow rules
market outlook
Global Financial Condition Highlights * US credit rating cut from AAA to Aa1 (Moody’s) has reintroduced credit risk into Treasuries, fueling safe-haven demand. * Ukraine-Russia direct talks failed to yield a ceasefire; fresh European/US sanctions look imminent, adding to risk-off pressures. * Soft US inflation prints (CPI/PPI below expectations; University