market outlook
We’re focused on the May Core PCE release at 8:30 AM (consensus +0.1% MoM, Goldman +0.18%). Core PCE is largely baked in from recent CPI/PPI prints, so we’d need a surprise >0.2% to tilt markets risk-off—boosting the USD and pressuring equities
market outlook
We’re seeing Middle East de-escalation cool off safe-haven bids, putting short-term pressure on gold toward the 3 250–3 280 area even as the broader macro drivers (fiscal risks, tariffs, de-dollarization, central bank buying) remain bullish into year-end. The U.S. dollar looks set for another leg lower ahead
market outlook
Global Financial Condition Highlights * Geopolitical tensions remain the dominant driver: U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, and continued uncertainty are keeping risk-off premiums high. * Federal Reserve: dot-plot still shows two cuts this cycle. Powell’s June press conference was broadly balanced,
market outlook
Rising uncertainty over a possible US strike on Iran is keeping markets in risk-off mode. Safe-haven assets (USD, CHF, JPY and gold) are firming, while equities, high-beta currencies and crypto remain under pressure. We observe that any direct US involvement would likely trigger a sharp—but short-lived—flight to safety,
market outlook
Markets are braced for a dovish Fed after today’s FOMC: the dot plot shows two rate cuts this year and Chair Powell is expected to lean toward easier policy, setting the stage for a July cut. However, escalating US–Iran tensions are capping dollar weakness and triggering safe-haven bids
market outlook
Despite equity benchmarks hugging record highs on hopes of a dovish Fed pivot tonight, markets remain on edge after President Trump abruptly left the G7, urging Tehran to evacuate and hinting that his return to Washington is “much bigger” than a mere ceasefire (see below). For now, the collective view
market outlook
Markets have largely priced in a near‐term de-escalation in Middle East hostilities after reports that Iran is privately signaling a desire to resume nuclear talks, even as Trump’s abrupt G7 exit and talk of something “much bigger” keep tail-risk awareness elevated. Safe havens (gold, USTs, JPY) have softened
market outlook
Global Financial Condition Highlights * Geopolitical risk premium easing as Israel-Iran strikes pause and hopes for diplomacy rise. * US CPI and PPI came in softer than expected, reinforcing expectations of Fed rate cuts. * Central bank demand for Gold remains elevated, while USD comes under renewed pressure. Currencies & Forex Markets * USD:
market outlook
Risk sentiment has been buoyed by a dovish US CPI print (Core MoM 0.1% vs 0.3% forecast) and soft PPI, underscoring fading tariff-inflation fears and setting the stage for renewed Fed rate-cut speculation—boosting equities, crypto and high-beta FX (AUD, NZD, CAD) while keeping the USD under pressure.
market outlook
US-China trade talks wrapped up with a framework to uphold the Geneva deal—enough to avert escalation but nothing to spark a big rally. That leaves markets in a mild risk-on mode: equities (S&P 500, Nasdaq) grinding higher toward all-time highs, safe havens (gold, CHF, JPY) under pressure,
market outlook
US-China trade talks resume in London today, and the market is pricing in another modestly positive outcome—enough to keep risk appetite up but unlikely to deliver fresh tariff cuts. Equities and high-beta currencies (AUD, NZD) remain under tailwinds, while traditional safe-havens (gold, CHF, JPY) have come under pressure. Gold’
market outlook
Global Financial Condition Highlights * US labor market is softening: ADP rose just +37k in May, ISM services declined, initial jobless claims jumped to 247k, and the June NFP printed 139k (vs. 126k expected) with downward revisions to March-April. * Second round of US-China trade talks kicks off in London; markets expect