market outlook
Global Financial Condition Highlights * Trade‐policy uncertainty remains the dominant theme: • A U.S. court briefly blocked, then reinstated, Trump’s tariff authority. • New U.S. tech sanctions on China and doubled steel/aluminum levies (to 50% from June 4) keep risk elevated. * Risk sentiment is mixed—initial risk-on from
market outlook
Markets are roiled by a federal court ruling blocking Trump’s tariff authority, only to have the US appeals court reinstate them, reviving trade‐policy risk. Since April 2 the tariff narrative has been re‐read as bearish USD/bullish safe havens: when tariffs are on, USD weakens and gold/
market outlook
Markets have flipped into a clear risk-on mode after a U.S. federal court struck down President Trump’s tariff authority: equities are rallying into a seasonally strong window and high-beta currencies (AUD, NZD) are outperforming, while “low-beta” safe haven currencies (JPY, CHF) and gold are sold off. Paradoxically, USD
market outlook
Markets have tilted back into risk-on after the U.S. delayed a planned 50% tariff on Europe from June 1 to July 9, giving equities and high-beta currencies like AUDUSD a lift while gold takes a breather. The dollar, paradoxically stronger today, is benefiting from the tariff “de-escalation” narrative and
market outlook
Global Financial Condition Highlights * US credit downgrade and massive fiscal expansion (the “Big Beautiful Bill”) are eroding confidence in the dollar and bond markets. * Capital is rotating out of US assets – bonds down, equities soft, USD broadly weaker. * Asia-led dollar selling continues to confirm a “sell USD” regime. Currencies &
market outlook
US markets remain under pressure as a credit downgrade and a $3.8 trillion tax-cut bill have sparked capital outflows: bonds and the dollar are down, equities choppy with a slight bearish tilt. Asia-led dollar selling persists, driving gold to fresh highs and bitcoin to all-time peaks as investors seek
market outlook
The US credit-rating downgrade last Friday has triggered broad dollar weakness—USD, bonds and equities are all under pressure—fueling a fresh leg higher in gold (now making new hourly highs) and a rally in EUR/USD toward the 1.18-1.20 area. China’s recent easing of bullion-inflow rules
market outlook
Global Financial Condition Highlights * US credit rating cut from AAA to Aa1 (Moody’s) has reintroduced credit risk into Treasuries, fueling safe-haven demand. * Ukraine-Russia direct talks failed to yield a ceasefire; fresh European/US sanctions look imminent, adding to risk-off pressures. * Soft US inflation prints (CPI/PPI below expectations; University
market outlook
US PPI surprised to the downside, piling more dovish data under the Fed’s tightening cycle and keeping the dollar on the defensive; USDCHF trades near flat while EUR/USD dips remain well supported. Gold has broken market structure with a technical long signal at 3216 targeting 3438, reflecting safe-haven
market outlook
Dollar saw a modest pullback on soft CPI data, but remains on track for further short-term strength against EUR, CHF and JPY amid optimism over US–China trade-talk extensions; longer term Jay projects a 10–15% dollar decline as President Trump leans toward rate cuts and FX “rebalancing.” Equities are
market outlook
The market is riding a risk-on wave after the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day tariff pause (10% on U.S. exports to China, 30% on Chinese exports to the U.S.), lifting equities and the dollar while pressuring gold and defensive FX (CHF, JPY). Fed speakers and
market outlook
Global Financial Condition Highlights * Fed remains hawkish on the margin: Powell’s “wait and see” keeps rate-cut bets at bay, underpinning USD strength. * U.S.-China trade deal struck in Geneva over the weekend—both sides agreed to deep tariff cuts (China to 10% for 90 days; U.S. to