Market Summary (Sep 30, 2025)

We remain cautious as markets increasingly price in an imminent U.S. government shutdown that would delay all economic releases, force the Fed into an “insurance” rate cut in October, weaken the dollar and bolster safe havens. Geopolitical tensions—from a more proactive U.S. military posture to renewed Russia and Middle East strains—add to gold’s appeal. Seasonal data also show gold historically trending higher through October, with near-term resistance around 3800 and further upside toward 3900, while equities and high-beta currencies face headwinds from dollar softness and risk-off flows.