market outlook

Market Summary (Sep 3, 2025)

Josh

03 Sep 2025 — 1 min read

We remain in a bearish-dollar regime as our leading indicators point to a softening U.S. labor market (JOLTS below forecasts and goldman’s 60k NFP preview), putting renewed upside pressure on gold toward 3,700 in the coming week and 4,000 on a longer horizon. Political turmoil in Japan has sparked short-term JPY weakness, yet BoJ’s potential tightening bias and U.S. recession risks underpin a medium-term JPY recovery (USD/JPY could retest 145 on a weak NFP print). EUR retains upside if technicals break key resistance, while GBP stays vulnerable amid U.K. gilt stresses. NZD/JPY also looks set for further downside on policy divergence.

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of September 15, 2025)

Global Financial Condition Highlights * Fed on the cusp of rate cuts despite core inflation holding near 3 %, underscoring a stagflation backdrop (weakening labor market vs supply-driven price pressures). * Rising geopolitical tensions—US threats of broad tariffs on China and tougher sanctions on Russia—are shifting sentiment toward risk-off. * Soft PPI

Market Analysis - 2025-09-12

We’re seeing a clear stagflation backdrop: PPI and core CPI prints are in-line but labor-market data disappointed, while University of Michigan sentiment undershot and 5-year inflation expectations jumped. This mix virtually guarantees Fed rate cuts next week despite core inflation sitting above 3%, keeping downward pressure on the US

Market Summary (Sep 11, 2025)

We’ve seen yesterday’s PPI core at 2.8% YoY (vs. 3.5% expected) and headline at 2.6% YoY (vs. 3.3%), which pointed to a soft CPI—yet today’s headline and core CPI matched forecasts at 3.1% YoY and 0.3% MoM, while initial jobless

Market Summary (Sep 10, 2025)

We’ve seen a sharp downside surprise in US PPI, with headline printing 2.6% YoY vs. 3.3% expected and core at 2.8% vs. 3.5%. Given the historical 80–90% correlation between PPI and CPI surprises, we’re positioned for tomorrow’s CPI to undershoot, sharply increasing

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Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of September 15, 2025)

Market Analysis - 2025-09-12

Market Summary (Sep 11, 2025)

Market Summary (Sep 10, 2025)