market outlook

Market Summary (Sep 25, 2025)

Josh

25 Sep 2025

We see the dollar caught in a tactical relief rally on quarter-end rebalancing flows, even as Fed rhetoric remains dovish and labor data shows early signs of softening—keeping our long-term USD-bear view intact. Upcoming US jobs releases, especially next week’s NFP, will be the critical catalyst: a softer print should accelerate dollar weakness, while upside surprises could prolong this pullback. In metals, gold has formed a corrective consolidation beneath its key resistance trendline; seasonal patterns and technical setup suggest a break higher could drive it toward ~3,850, with 4,000 within early-year reach. Elsewhere, divergent central-bank stances (ECB hawkish vs. Fed dovish) continue to underpin euro strength, making EURUSD our preferred vehicle for capturing that theme.

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Market Summary (Oct 29, 2025)

We remain constructive on gold despite the recent shake-out, as central banks continue to diversify into bullion (gold now represents roughly 30% of FX+gold reserves) and our long-term fair-value model points toward much higher levels. Tomorrow’s FOMC is the next key catalyst: a dovish Fed would likely send

Market Summary (Oct 28, 2025)

We see gold caught in a sharp pullback as markets price in the immediate 25 bp Fed cut, but our macro bias remains firmly bullish: ongoing central-bank accumulation, de-dollarization trends and dovish Fed rhetoric should drive a resumption above the 4,160–4,200 area once technical structure confirms. Oil

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of October 27, 2025)

Global Financial Condition Highlights * US–China trade talks reached a consensus in Kuala Lumpur, averting the risk of 100% tariffs and rare-earth export curbs. * US CPI (October) printed softer than expected, reinforcing dovish Fed expectations ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC. * “Risk-on” sentiment prevails: equities, commodities, and procyclical currencies are bid;

Market Summary (Oct 24, 2025)

We’re entering US CPI day with gold poised to rally in either scenario—soft data would cement a dovish Fed view and hot prints would stoke stagflation fears—keeping safe-haven flows supported around the low-4,000s and trendline support near 4,036. Volatility remains elevated, so knee-jerk moves are