market outlook

Market Summary (Sep 23, 2025)

Josh

23 Sep 2025 — 1 min read

We remain positioned for broad US dollar softness as Chair Powell is expected to reiterate a dovish bias, reinforcing the recent bullish engulfing on EUR-USD and keeping upside momentum intact barring a major PMI miss. The pound stays under pressure given deteriorating UK public finances and deeply disappointing PMI readings, suggesting further sterling weakness. Kiwi dollar downside should persist amid RBNZ easing expectations, while USD-JPY remains vulnerable to a hawkish surprise from Powell. Gold is our preferred macro hedge: China’s push to domicile foreign reserves via the Shanghai Gold Exchange underpins a medium- to long-term bid as countries seek protection from dollar weaponization.

China Courts Foreign Gold Reserves to Boost Global Clout

Market Summary (Oct 29, 2025)

We remain constructive on gold despite the recent shake-out, as central banks continue to diversify into bullion (gold now represents roughly 30% of FX+gold reserves) and our long-term fair-value model points toward much higher levels. Tomorrow’s FOMC is the next key catalyst: a dovish Fed would likely send

Market Summary (Oct 28, 2025)

We see gold caught in a sharp pullback as markets price in the immediate 25 bp Fed cut, but our macro bias remains firmly bullish: ongoing central-bank accumulation, de-dollarization trends and dovish Fed rhetoric should drive a resumption above the 4,160–4,200 area once technical structure confirms. Oil

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of October 27, 2025)

Global Financial Condition Highlights * US–China trade talks reached a consensus in Kuala Lumpur, averting the risk of 100% tariffs and rare-earth export curbs. * US CPI (October) printed softer than expected, reinforcing dovish Fed expectations ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC. * “Risk-on” sentiment prevails: equities, commodities, and procyclical currencies are bid;

Market Summary (Oct 24, 2025)

We’re entering US CPI day with gold poised to rally in either scenario—soft data would cement a dovish Fed view and hot prints would stoke stagflation fears—keeping safe-haven flows supported around the low-4,000s and trendline support near 4,036. Volatility remains elevated, so knee-jerk moves are

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Market Summary (Oct 29, 2025)

Market Summary (Oct 28, 2025)

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of October 27, 2025)

Market Summary (Oct 24, 2025)