market outlook

Market Summary (Sep 19, 2025)

Josh

19 Sep 2025 — 1 min read

We’ve seen a classic “sell the fact” pullback in dollar pairs and gold after the Fed’s dovish guidance, but the real story today is the Bank of Japan’s hawkish surprise—two dissenters voting for a rate hike—which pushes USD/JPY towards 142.00 as Fed cuts and a likely BoJ lift create a steeper rate divergence. Meanwhile, a technical error in North Carolina’s jobless claims has just been corrected, lifting national continuing claims and removing a key underpinning of recent dollar strength. With the Fed on hold, BoJ on the brink of tightening, and a softer U.S. labor backdrop, we retain a medium-to-long-term bias for lower USD and higher gold (towards 3,800) and EUR/USD breaking above 1.2000 once technical triggers align.

Market Summary (Oct 29, 2025)

We remain constructive on gold despite the recent shake-out, as central banks continue to diversify into bullion (gold now represents roughly 30% of FX+gold reserves) and our long-term fair-value model points toward much higher levels. Tomorrow’s FOMC is the next key catalyst: a dovish Fed would likely send

Market Summary (Oct 28, 2025)

We see gold caught in a sharp pullback as markets price in the immediate 25 bp Fed cut, but our macro bias remains firmly bullish: ongoing central-bank accumulation, de-dollarization trends and dovish Fed rhetoric should drive a resumption above the 4,160–4,200 area once technical structure confirms. Oil

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of October 27, 2025)

Global Financial Condition Highlights * US–China trade talks reached a consensus in Kuala Lumpur, averting the risk of 100% tariffs and rare-earth export curbs. * US CPI (October) printed softer than expected, reinforcing dovish Fed expectations ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC. * “Risk-on” sentiment prevails: equities, commodities, and procyclical currencies are bid;

Market Summary (Oct 24, 2025)

We’re entering US CPI day with gold poised to rally in either scenario—soft data would cement a dovish Fed view and hot prints would stoke stagflation fears—keeping safe-haven flows supported around the low-4,000s and trendline support near 4,036. Volatility remains elevated, so knee-jerk moves are

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Market Summary (Oct 29, 2025)

Market Summary (Oct 28, 2025)

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of October 27, 2025)

Market Summary (Oct 24, 2025)