Market Summary (Sep 17, 2025)

We continue to see the US dollar under pressure as the Federal Reserve pivots toward rate cuts, prioritizing labor-market support over inflation. Today’s likely 25 bps cut will be less important than the forward guidance: signals of further easing will exacerbate USD weakness, while a “one-and-done” stance could trigger a short-lived dollar bounce (“sell the fact”). Our medium-term USD bearish view remains intact, with potential choppiness around the FOMC.

Gold’s bull trend is firmly in place—anchored by lower real yields, erosion of central-bank independence, and persistent geopolitical risks. We see 3 700 within reach and scope to extend toward 3 800–4 000 over the medium to long term. Any pullback into key technical levels should offer attractive re-entry opportunities.

Emerging-market carry currencies (e.g. BRL, ZAR, MXN) stand out as relative outperformers given shifting hedging costs and the imminent Fed cuts, complementing our broader USD-down thesis. In Japan, the BoJ is likely to deliver a rate hike by year-end, offering modest JPY support but not enough to reverse the overall dollar downtrend.

Equity markets remain vulnerable to another risk-off event—either a dovish Fed repricing or fresh geopolitical tensions—which we’d look to buy on.