Market Summary (Oct 9, 2025)

We’re seeing a curious convergence of dollar strength and a roaring gold market, a classic hallmark of safe-haven demand amid the U.S. government shutdown and mounting geopolitical tensions. With headline U.S. data delayed, all eyes are on the Fed Chair’s remarks for clues on how the lack of fresh economic releases will shape policy. Gold’s break above the 4,000 mark—despite the firm dollar—is highly unusual and suggests further upside after a possible mid-week pullback toward the 3,950–3,980 zone for a cleaner technical entry. Meanwhile, USD/JPY has rallied sharply and now looks stretched; any hint of BoJ intervention or U.S. criticism of Japanese currency moves could cap further gains. Base metals and silver are also outperforming, reflecting broader safe-haven and commodity-driven flows. We remain open-minded for a technical trigger on short-dollar strategies once Powell’s tone and the eventual flood of backlogged data provide clearer direction.