Market Summary (Oct 8, 2025)

We see a broad‐based US dollar rally, led by yen weakness following post-election flows in Japan and growing expectations of BoJ intervention to curb excessive FX volatility—USD/JPY has pushed above 148 amid Treasury pressure for a lower pair to shrink the trade deficit. Oddly, gold has powered through the 4 000 mark even as the dollar strengthens—a classic sign of mounting safe-haven demand and “trouble building up” in credit and equity markets. Profit-taking around the 4 000 round number should give way to fresh dips, but our medium-term bullish bias is reinforced by sticky ETF inflows and central bank buying that underpin Goldman’s upgraded 2026 gold forecast of 4 900. Meanwhile, the RBA paused at 3.60 %—cautiously flagging persistent inflation risks—and the RBNZ is poised to cut the OCR toward 2.50 %, a trajectory likely to keep AUD and NZD on the defensive into year-end.