market outlook

Market Summary (Oct 2, 2025)

Josh

02 Oct 2025

We remain in a USD-bearish environment as the ongoing US government shutdown freezes BLS releases and a softer-than-expected ADP private payrolls print reinforces concerns over labor-market strength, driving gold toward the 3,900 area. Equities are buoyed by heightened Fed easing bets, while bitcoin enters its seasonally bullish phase. Euro strength is testing key trendline resistance amid dollar weakness, and oil is caught between OPEC supply pledges and easing Middle East tensions, resulting in a mixed outlook.

Market Summary (Oct 29, 2025)

We remain constructive on gold despite the recent shake-out, as central banks continue to diversify into bullion (gold now represents roughly 30% of FX+gold reserves) and our long-term fair-value model points toward much higher levels. Tomorrow’s FOMC is the next key catalyst: a dovish Fed would likely send

Market Summary (Oct 28, 2025)

We see gold caught in a sharp pullback as markets price in the immediate 25 bp Fed cut, but our macro bias remains firmly bullish: ongoing central-bank accumulation, de-dollarization trends and dovish Fed rhetoric should drive a resumption above the 4,160–4,200 area once technical structure confirms. Oil

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of October 27, 2025)

Global Financial Condition Highlights * US–China trade talks reached a consensus in Kuala Lumpur, averting the risk of 100% tariffs and rare-earth export curbs. * US CPI (October) printed softer than expected, reinforcing dovish Fed expectations ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC. * “Risk-on” sentiment prevails: equities, commodities, and procyclical currencies are bid;

Market Summary (Oct 24, 2025)

We’re entering US CPI day with gold poised to rally in either scenario—soft data would cement a dovish Fed view and hot prints would stoke stagflation fears—keeping safe-haven flows supported around the low-4,000s and trendline support near 4,036. Volatility remains elevated, so knee-jerk moves are

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Market Summary (Oct 29, 2025)

Market Summary (Oct 28, 2025)

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of October 27, 2025)

Market Summary (Oct 24, 2025)