Market Summary (Oct 17, 2025)
We maintain a risk-off bias as US–China trade tensions show no sign of easing, driving equities (S&P 500, AUD, NZD) toward fresh lows while safe havens (JPY, CHF, gold) strengthen. The Swiss government warns that US tariffs are weighing on domestic industry, which reinforces CHF’s appeal unless the SNB intervenes with rate cuts or direct FX intervention. Gold remains in a parabolic uptrend—though it will ultimately need multi-week consolidation to avoid abrupt corrections—while silver lags, given its industrial demand. Bitcoin is our primary crypto exposure and continues to be viewed as a potential safe haven long term, but it remains vulnerable to any geopolitical “scare,” with critical support near 100 k and upside risk toward 150 k. High-level meetings on the Russia–Ukraine conflict have produced little in the way of de-escalation so far, keeping risk assets under pressure.
