Market Summary (Oct 16, 2025)

We saw Fed Chair Powell signal an end to quantitative tightening in the coming months, removing a modest USD‐supportive factor, while intensifying US–China tensions—most recently via Beijing’s rare-earth export controls—have pushed risk sentiment to the fore. In a renewed risk-off environment, equities and high-beta currencies (AUD, NZD) look vulnerable, whereas traditional safe havens (JPY, CHF, gold) should benefit. Gold’s parabolic run underscores sticky ETF and central-bank demand, and our framework still points to roughly 23% upside by end-2026.