Market Summary (Oct 15, 2025)

We’re seeing a tug-of-war between dovish Fed guidance—most notably the impending end to quantitative tightening—and renewed U.S.-China trade friction. Equities have ricocheted higher on the QT wind-down and dovish rhetoric, pushing the S&P 500 back toward its highs, though a breach of its resistance trendline will be key to sustain the move. The U.S. dollar, along with traditional safe havens like JPY and CHF, remains bid amid geopolitical risk, while high-beta FX (AUD/NZD) and crypto will likely underperform if tensions flare further. Gold continues its measured rally, underpinned by sticky ETF inflows and central-bank buying, following its weekly cycle of Monday strength, mid-week pullbacks, and Friday breakouts; our longer-term view aligns with forecasts near $4,900/oz by late 2026.