Market Summary (Oct 1, 2025)

We’ve entered a U.S. government shutdown, halting BLS data and effectively forcing the Fed toward an “insurance” rate cut this month. That dynamic is bearish for the dollar and supportive for gold, which—after outperforming seasonally in early October—is likely to press higher despite near-term risk/reward concerns. The RBA’s dovish hold and solid labor‐market commentary underpin AUD strength ahead of fresh inflation and jobs reports. A sub-50 k ADP print and pending ISM releases may cement roughly 50 bps of cuts into front-end yields. Technically, EUR/USD is testing a medium-term trendline breakout toward 1.20, while USD/JPY volatility is being held in check by Japan’s looming LDP election. Bitcoin enters its most bullish seasonal window of the year, and S&P 500 seasonals also look constructive for Q4—conditional on a shutdown resolution and a non-disastrous NFP outcome.