market outlook

Market Summary (Nov 6, 2025)

Josh

06 Nov 2025

We’re seeing a firmer US dollar after ADP and ISM services surprised to the upside, pushing back on December rate-cut bets and keeping DXY near 100.2. EUR/USD is capped around 1.1544–1.1550 and looks set to roll over, while GBP/USD remains vulnerable amid a split BoE vote and ongoing fiscal strains. USD/CHF continues to benefit from a gentle US easing cycle, and AUD/NZD has stalled around 1.1500, hinting at further downside. Gold stays in a constructive long-term setup—bolstered by the prospect of disinflation should the Supreme Court deem tariffs illegal—but may first see a modest pullback before targeting a clean break above recent highs.

Market Summary (Nov 27, 2025)

We remain positioned for a softer US dollar as markets ramp up expectations for a December Fed rate cut and a highly dovish incoming Fed chair. EUR/USD is eyeing a break back above the 1.1600 area, while NZD/USD – having seen the RBNZ pause its tightening cycle – could

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of November 26, 2025)

Global Financial Condition Highlights * Fed officials (Williams via X.com) underscored “room for a near-term rate cut” and flagged rising downside risks to employment, pushing December cut odds to ~80%. * The BLS’s decision to delay October/November NFP releases until after the Dec. 10 FOMC meeting reduces fresh data

Market Summary (Nov 20, 2025)

We see the US dollar grind higher after hawkish-leaning FOMC minutes and the revelation that October/November payroll data won’t arrive until after the Dec. 10 Fed meeting—cutting the market’s December rate-cut odds to roughly 30%. Today’s delayed September NFP print was mixed (119k jobs added,

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of November 17, 2025)

Global Financial Condition Highlights * U.S. labor data shows growing weakness (ADP down, September NFP is old news but likely soft), reinforcing expectations for a December Fed rate cut. Fed voting is split, but a weak jobs report should push cut odds from ~45% toward 80%. * Government shutdown has ended,

Read more

Market Summary (Nov 27, 2025)

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of November 26, 2025)

Market Summary (Nov 20, 2025)

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of November 17, 2025)