market outlook

Market Summary (Nov 27, 2025)

Josh

27 Nov 2025 — 1 min read

We remain positioned for a softer US dollar as markets ramp up expectations for a December Fed rate cut and a highly dovish incoming Fed chair. EUR/USD is eyeing a break back above the 1.1600 area, while NZD/USD – having seen the RBNZ pause its tightening cycle – could test the 0.5800 region on USD weakness. Gold is bid on prospects of imminent Fed easing but remains vulnerable to upside spikes if Ukraine peace-deal headlines gain traction (see image below). Mixed US labor prints (an outsized ADP decline but slightly stronger payroll data) have done little to derail the broader view that policy is on a loosening path.

Ukraine agrees to terms – US official to ABC News

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of November 26, 2025)

Global Financial Condition Highlights * Fed officials (Williams via X.com) underscored “room for a near-term rate cut” and flagged rising downside risks to employment, pushing December cut odds to ~80%. * The BLS’s decision to delay October/November NFP releases until after the Dec. 10 FOMC meeting reduces fresh data

Market Summary (Nov 20, 2025)

We see the US dollar grind higher after hawkish-leaning FOMC minutes and the revelation that October/November payroll data won’t arrive until after the Dec. 10 Fed meeting—cutting the market’s December rate-cut odds to roughly 30%. Today’s delayed September NFP print was mixed (119k jobs added,

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of November 17, 2025)

Global Financial Condition Highlights * U.S. labor data shows growing weakness (ADP down, September NFP is old news but likely soft), reinforcing expectations for a December Fed rate cut. Fed voting is split, but a weak jobs report should push cut odds from ~45% toward 80%. * Government shutdown has ended,

Market Summary (Nov 14, 2025)

We note that the US government shutdown has ended but markets remain risk-off as participants digest hawkish Fed rhetoric – several voting members have signaled a preference to hold rates into year-end, pushing December cut odds lower and leaving the bar high for further easing. In FX, EUR is showing resilience

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Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of November 26, 2025)

Market Summary (Nov 20, 2025)

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of November 17, 2025)

Market Summary (Nov 14, 2025)