Market Summary (Nov 20, 2025)

We see the US dollar grind higher after hawkish-leaning FOMC minutes and the revelation that October/November payroll data won’t arrive until after the Dec. 10 Fed meeting—cutting the market’s December rate-cut odds to roughly 30%. Today’s delayed September NFP print was mixed (119k jobs added, unemployment up), offering little reprieve for dollar bears. In the absence of fresh labor data, we expect the USD to remain bid, keeping EUR USD under pressure and capping gold’s upside unless future jobs prints slump below 40k. Equity markets face a delicate balance: a 20–40k NFP reading could spur a relief rally, but any number under 20k would sharply raise recession fears. Meanwhile, JPY volatility is set to rise ahead of the BoJ decision—a hold is the base case, yet markets are pricing in a 30–35% chance of a rate hike, underscoring the risk of intervention.