Market Summary (Nov 14, 2025)

We note that the US government shutdown has ended but markets remain risk-off as participants digest hawkish Fed rhetoric – several voting members have signaled a preference to hold rates into year-end, pushing December cut odds lower and leaving the bar high for further easing. In FX, EUR is showing resilience after clearing recent session highs, while GBP faces headwinds from lingering UK stagflation concerns. AUD retains a mild bullish slant on the back of an RBA pause that keeps policy tighter than peers, whereas NZD’s recent strength appears technically driven. USD/JPY remains capped at the 155.00 threshold, suggesting a range-bound environment until a clear breakout. In commodities, our long-term bullish view on gold stays intact: a corrective dip toward the 4 200 area would offer a favorable setup for the next leg higher.