Market Summary (Nov 12, 2025)

We’re seeing a clear dovish tilt across G10 as UK labour data disappointed—unemployment climbed to 5% and wage growth cooled—cementing market bets on a BoE rate cut in December and weighing on GBP, notably versus EUR. In the US, the government shutdown has shown up in private‐sector payrolls (ADP losses averaging over 11k/week) and Goldman’s forecast of a negative NFP print, driving Fed cut odds north of 80% and pressuring the dollar. That backdrop keeps the S&P 500 range-bound into the holiday and underpins gold’s rally on softer USD sentiment.