Market Summary (Nov 11, 2025)

We view the end of the US government shutdown as removing a key Fed risk, boosting the odds of a December rate cut and softening the dollar—a view reinforced by alternative data pointing to a roughly 50k decline in nonfarm payrolls. Gold is benefiting from the dovish tilt, while the S&P 500 is breaking a critical resistance trendline amid seasonal strength (albeit low holiday liquidity). In the UK, broadly missed employment metrics and a ~65–70% market pricing for a 25 bps BoE cut in December are placing sterling under pressure, and JPY dynamics remain ambiguous.