Market Summary (May 30, 2025)
Markets are roiled by a federal court ruling blocking Trump’s tariff authority, only to have the US appeals court reinstate them, reviving trade‐policy risk. Since April 2 the tariff narrative has been re‐read as bearish USD/bullish safe havens: when tariffs are on, USD weakens and gold/CHF/JPY rally; when blocked, USD strengthens, equities and high‐beta FX (AUD, NZD) advance while low‐beta FX (EUR, CHF, JPY) lag. Short-term positions remain biased long AUDUSD/NZDUSD and gold as uncertainty persists and equities look structurally supported. Softer PCE forecasts (core +0.12% m/m, +2.2% y/y median) could accelerate Fed rate-cut expectations, underpinning EURUSD and gold into the week’s close.
