Market Summary (May 16, 2025)
US PPI surprised to the downside, piling more dovish data under the Fed’s tightening cycle and keeping the dollar on the defensive; USDCHF trades near flat while EUR/USD dips remain well supported. Gold has broken market structure with a technical long signal at 3216 targeting 3438, reflecting safe-haven buying amid fading hopes for a Ukraine-Russia breakthrough in Turkey. Equities and the broader risk complex still show resilience into mid-July’s 90-day tariff-pause expiration (with China’s pause expiring mid-August), but will face renewed selling if no deal materializes. In Australia, a 25 bp “hawkish cut” by the RBA on May 20 is fully priced, lending mild support to AUD even as wage data remain firm.
