market outlook

Market Summary (May 15, 2025)

Josh

15 May 2025

Dollar saw a modest pullback on soft CPI data, but remains on track for further short-term strength against EUR, CHF and JPY amid optimism over US–China trade-talk extensions; longer term Jay projects a 10–15% dollar decline as President Trump leans toward rate cuts and FX “rebalancing.” Equities are likely to grind higher into midsummer before the 90-day tariff pauses expire in July–August, when upside risks could reverse sharply. Geopolitics also loom large: Ukraine-Russia talks may fuel risk-on if progress is reported, or bolster gold bullishness on disappointment. Technically, gold has triggered a long signal at 3,216 with a 3,438 target.

Market Summary (Jul 18, 2025)

We continue to view gold as fundamentally bullish amid lingering Fed uncertainty and mixed U.S. data, with the metal holding above its higher-timeframe support trendline and bumping up against near-term resistance around $3,350. While short-term chop may persist without a fresh catalyst, a decisive breakout would reinforce the

Market Summary (Jul 17, 2025)

We saw another dovish PPI print yesterday (core PPI YoY 2.6% vs. 2.7% expected), reinforcing the view that underlying inflation is cooling and limiting the risk of another Fed hike. At the same time, persistent rumors that the Fed Chair could be dismissed remain a key tail risk.

Market Summary (Jul 16, 2025)

We saw US inflation hold broadly in line with expectations—core CPI rose 0.2 MoM (vs. 0.3 forecast) and 2.9 YoY—while core PPI disappointed at 0.0 MoM and 2.6 YoY, pointing to continued disinflationary pressure ahead of the PCE report. The dollar has rallied

Market Summary (Jul 15, 2025)

We see markets grapple with renewed U.S.–Russia sanctions rhetoric—threats of 100% tariffs in 50 days—and a Fed outlook supported by an inline July CPI report (Core CPI MoM +0.2% vs +0.3% exp; YoY +2.9% vs +2.9% exp). This geopolitical risk backdrop underpins

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Market Summary (Jul 18, 2025)

Market Summary (Jul 17, 2025)

Market Summary (Jul 16, 2025)

Market Summary (Jul 15, 2025)