Market Summary (May 13, 2025)

The market is riding a risk-on wave after the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day tariff pause (10% on U.S. exports to China, 30% on Chinese exports to the U.S.), lifting equities and the dollar while pressuring gold and defensive FX (CHF, JPY). Fed speakers and recent CPI forecasts (see median 0.25% m/m headline, 0.26% core) suggest inflation remains sticky above target, so no imminent rate cuts—dollar-short positions look crowded and set to unwind further. Near-term, watch the July tariff-pause deadline and U.S.–Europe/Japan trade talks for the next risk-off trigger.