market outlook

Market Summary (Jun 4, 2025)

Josh

04 Jun 2025 — 1 min read

The dollar remains under pressure as a softer‐than‐expected US labour data sequence (JOLTS, ISM services, ADP and the key Friday NFP) looms, underpinning gold’s bullish bias around the 3,327 support pivot. EUR USD could dip toward 1.1070 ahead of the ECB decision before resuming its medium-term climb toward 1.18–1.20. In crypto, Bitcoin and Solana outshine Ether, which continues to disappoint. USD/JPY weakness persists without a clear catalyst, while US–China deal hopes cool after recent Trump comments.

Market Summary (Aug 1, 2025)

We saw US labor data come in far weaker than expected, with July nonfarm payrolls at 73 K versus the 104 K forecast and May/June both revised down by roughly 230 K combined. Fed funds futures now price a roughly 75 % chance of a 25 bp cut in September,

Market Summary (Jul 31, 2025)

We see a broad dovish tilt from major central banks weighing on bond yields and the U.S. dollar, while equities—led by tech—continue to grind higher on improving growth forecasts. Disinflationary signals from our most authoritative sources have driven 10-year Treasury yields back below 4.00%, supporting rate-sensitive

Market Summary (Jul 30, 2025)

We expect today’s FOMC to lean dovish—two dissenters and Fed guidance toward a September cut should weigh on the USD and lift gold, which remains anchored above the $3,200/oz support level. Secondary 100% tariffs on any country buying Russian goods, plus still-high U.S. trade levies

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of July 29, 2025)

Global Financial Condition Highlights * Trade tensions eased as the US-Japan deal (15% reciprocal tariffs; $550 bn investment) and a 15% US-EU tariff compromise were finalized, removing major sources of uncertainty. * Fed poised to adopt a dovish tone at Wednesday’s FOMC, laying groundwork for a September rate cut; President Trump’

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Market Summary (Aug 1, 2025)

Market Summary (Jul 31, 2025)

Market Summary (Jul 30, 2025)

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of July 29, 2025)