market outlook

Market Summary (Jun 19, 2025)

Josh

19 Jun 2025 — 1 min read

Markets are braced for a dovish Fed after today’s FOMC: the dot plot shows two rate cuts this year and Chair Powell is expected to lean toward easier policy, setting the stage for a July cut. However, escalating US–Iran tensions are capping dollar weakness and triggering safe-haven bids in gold, CHF and JPY while equities, high-beta currencies and crypto underperform. Expect a quick risk-off spike—which should reverse once any conflict is resolved—and continued range-bound trading until geopolitical clarity emerges. Gold remains near all-time highs, underpinned by central-bank demand, with Goldman’s year-end target at $3,700/oz.

Iranian delegation for negotiations lands in Muscat, Oman

Market Summary (Jul 31, 2025)

We see a broad dovish tilt from major central banks weighing on bond yields and the U.S. dollar, while equities—led by tech—continue to grind higher on improving growth forecasts. Disinflationary signals from our most authoritative sources have driven 10-year Treasury yields back below 4.00%, supporting rate-sensitive

Market Summary (Jul 30, 2025)

We expect today’s FOMC to lean dovish—two dissenters and Fed guidance toward a September cut should weigh on the USD and lift gold, which remains anchored above the $3,200/oz support level. Secondary 100% tariffs on any country buying Russian goods, plus still-high U.S. trade levies

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of July 29, 2025)

Global Financial Condition Highlights * Trade tensions eased as the US-Japan deal (15% reciprocal tariffs; $550 bn investment) and a 15% US-EU tariff compromise were finalized, removing major sources of uncertainty. * Fed poised to adopt a dovish tone at Wednesday’s FOMC, laying groundwork for a September rate cut; President Trump’

Market Summary (Jul 25, 2025)

We’re seeing a risk-on tilt as US–EU trade talks edge toward a deal, reducing tariff uncertainty. That dynamic is weighing on safe havens—gold may test its recent support just above 3 300 before resuming an uptrend, and the yen is under pressure as BoJ policy stays dovish

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Market Summary (Jul 31, 2025)

Market Summary (Jul 30, 2025)

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of July 29, 2025)

Market Summary (Jul 25, 2025)