Market Summary (Jun 17, 2025)

Markets have largely priced in a near‐term de-escalation in Middle East hostilities after reports that Iran is privately signaling a desire to resume nuclear talks, even as Trump’s abrupt G7 exit and talk of something “much bigger” keep tail-risk awareness elevated. Safe havens (gold, USTs, JPY) have softened on these “de-escalation vibes,” sending XAU/USD back below recent peaks, while Brent and WTI remain in consolidation with limited fresh catalysts absent a Hormuz shutdown or wider conflict. Longer-term drivers—robust central-bank buying, tariff uncertainties, de-dollarization—still warrant a bullish view on gold toward the 3700 area, but short-term positioning calls for light exposure and flexible stops. All eyes now turn to this week’s FOMC for the next directional impulse.