We remain in a rising tariff‐risk environment that is fueling broad risk‐off flows into safe havens—our focus remains on gold, which has held near 3,300 and looks set to grind higher as equities (notably the S&P 500 and NASDAQ) face sideways chop and potential pullbacks. The USD’s recent strength is reinforcing downward pressure on risk assets, while longer‐term industrial metals (e.g. copper) warrant patience beyond current tariff turbulence.
We expect today’s FOMC to lean dovish—two dissenters and Fed guidance toward a September cut should weigh on the USD and lift gold, which remains anchored above the $3,200/oz support level. Secondary 100% tariffs on any country buying Russian goods, plus still-high U.S. trade levies
Global Financial Condition Highlights * Trade tensions eased as the US-Japan deal (15% reciprocal tariffs; $550 bn investment) and a 15% US-EU tariff compromise were finalized, removing major sources of uncertainty. * Fed poised to adopt a dovish tone at Wednesday’s FOMC, laying groundwork for a September rate cut; President Trump’
We’re seeing a risk-on tilt as US–EU trade talks edge toward a deal, reducing tariff uncertainty. That dynamic is weighing on safe havens—gold may test its recent support just above 3 300 before resuming an uptrend, and the yen is under pressure as BoJ policy stays dovish
We’re seeing a clear shift into risk-on mode after the US–Japan trade deal removed significant tariff uncertainty and paved the way for stronger equity, commodity and high-beta FX demand (AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP). At the same time, a dovish Bank of Japan and political turnover in Tokyo are