Market Summary (Aug 19, 2025)

We see geopolitics remaining tense after Ukraine’s outright rejection of Russia’s territorial-freeze proposal, leaving markets without a clear peace catalyst. Gold is consolidating within its corrective wedge, struggling to rally until a decisive political or macro surprise materializes, while equities and oil would likely rally on any unexpected breakthrough that eases sanctions and boosts supply. In FX, divergent central-bank paths—Fed leaning toward eventual rate cuts and the BoJ edging back toward tightening—continue to sap the dollar and bolster the yen, a theme supported by the gap between USD/JPY’s actual performance and model-implied fair value. All eyes now turn to Powell at Jackson Hole for the next directional clue.