Market Summary (Aug 1, 2025)

We saw US labor data come in far weaker than expected, with July nonfarm payrolls at 73 K versus the 104 K forecast and May/June both revised down by roughly 230 K combined. Fed funds futures now price a roughly 75 % chance of a 25 bp cut in September, driving USD softness and lifting gold and other safe havens. New reciprocal tariffs (15 %–39 %) are live today, putting additional pressure on risk assets, which look vulnerable given toppish technicals. Despite renewed public criticism of the Fed chair, near-term leadership changes remain unlikely. We remain cautious on equities and focused on today’s PCE data and tomorrow’s labor report for any further dovish confirmation.