Market Summary (April 30, 2025)

The markets remain in a risk-on tone, fueled by the expectation of a forthcoming US trade deal—likely with India, Korea, or Japan—despite mixed European tariff engagement. US data is pivotal this week, with resilient GDP and employment figures needed to sustain the risk appetite; recession fears are underpriced, prompting hedges in gold and oil puts. Equities and crypto are buoyant, aligned with bullish sentiment, while gold remains a key safe haven under threat of sharp Fed rate cuts if US recession risks escalate. Commodities like copper and gold are structurally bullish, supported by dollar diversification, increased defense spending, and de-risking energy supply chains. A potential deal quickly reversing tariffs could trigger upside, but market vulnerability persists amid volatile geopolitical and economic signals.