market outlook

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of September 22, 2025)

Josh

22 Sep 2025 — 2 min read

Global Financial Condition Highlights

FOMC signaled two more rate cuts this year, shifting its focus to a weakening U.S. labor market (dovish Fed).
Bank of Japan saw two dissenting votes for a hike—first since December 2024—making an October rate increase a real possibility (hawkish BoJ).
A technical error in U.S. jobless claims was revised materially higher, removing some of the recent USD support.

Currencies & Forex Markets

USD: Bearish medium term. Fed’s dovish guidance and labor‐market concerns are set to further soften the dollar.
EUR/USD: Bullish. Faster U.S. rate cuts versus slower ECB easing and a narrowing rate differential support a move above 1.2000.
USD/JPY: Bearish. With the Fed cutting and the BoJ poised to hike, the pair is likely to gravitate toward 142.
EUR/GBP: Bullish. Weekly close above 0.87 signals a breakout; BoE’s cautious QT and looming UK fiscal tightening weigh on the pound.
GBP/USD: Neutral-slightly bullish. BoE held rates but offered limited forward guidance; domestic fiscal headwinds cap upside.
AUD/USD: Slightly bullish. Broad USD weakness is supportive, though weak Aussie data and impending RBA easing limit gains.
NZD/USD: Bearish. Soft New Zealand GDP and the prospect of additional RBNZ cuts weigh on the kiwi.
USD/CAD: Neutral to mildly bearish CAD. The BoC’s cut was fully priced in; muted forward guidance leaves little new directional bias.
USD/CHF: Neutral. Lacks a fresh catalyst; likely to follow broader dollar trends.

Major Asset & Equity Outlooks

Gold: Bullish. A dovish Fed and inflation dynamics underpin a drive toward—and likely beyond—3800. A clean break above 3662 points to the next leg higher.
S&P 500: Cautious. Despite supportive monetary conditions, anticipate a short-term pullback before year-end. Wait for that shakeout to re-enter equities.
Oil & Commodities: Neutral-bullish. Geopolitical risks and tariff threats on Russian oil may provide support; euro could benefit modestly in a tariff-driven escalation.

Summary

The dominant theme is USD weakness driven by Fed dovishness and anticipated BoJ tightening. EURUSD and gold remain top medium-term longs, while USDJPY shorts are favored on central‐bank divergence. Equities should be approached with caution until a corrective trough forms.

Overall: With rate‐cut expectations entrenched at the Fed and tightening signals from the BoJ, the dollar’s downtrend should persist—favoring gold, the euro and yen while setting up a potential equity re-entry after a near-term pullback.

Market Summary (Oct 29, 2025)

We remain constructive on gold despite the recent shake-out, as central banks continue to diversify into bullion (gold now represents roughly 30% of FX+gold reserves) and our long-term fair-value model points toward much higher levels. Tomorrow’s FOMC is the next key catalyst: a dovish Fed would likely send

Market Summary (Oct 28, 2025)

We see gold caught in a sharp pullback as markets price in the immediate 25 bp Fed cut, but our macro bias remains firmly bullish: ongoing central-bank accumulation, de-dollarization trends and dovish Fed rhetoric should drive a resumption above the 4,160–4,200 area once technical structure confirms. Oil

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of October 27, 2025)

Global Financial Condition Highlights * US–China trade talks reached a consensus in Kuala Lumpur, averting the risk of 100% tariffs and rare-earth export curbs. * US CPI (October) printed softer than expected, reinforcing dovish Fed expectations ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC. * “Risk-on” sentiment prevails: equities, commodities, and procyclical currencies are bid;

Market Summary (Oct 24, 2025)

We’re entering US CPI day with gold poised to rally in either scenario—soft data would cement a dovish Fed view and hot prints would stoke stagflation fears—keeping safe-haven flows supported around the low-4,000s and trendline support near 4,036. Volatility remains elevated, so knee-jerk moves are