market outlook

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of September 08, 2025)

Josh

08 Sep 2025 — 1 min read

Global Financial Condition Highlights

US labor data slid sharply (JOLTS, ADP, claims and August NFP at 22 k), signaling a labor-market recession.
Fed is poised to begin rate cuts mid-September (25–50 bps), shifting to a dovish stance.
Geopolitical tensions rising: BRICS coordination, US–EU secondary Russia sanctions, and Japanese political drama.

Currencies & Forex Markets

USD: Bearish – pressured by weak labor market and imminent Fed cuts.
USD/JPY: Bearish medium-term – Fed-rate-cut differentials and safe-haven flows should drive it toward ~142. Short-term gaps from Japanese political noise warrant sideline.
EUR/USD: Bullish – breakout above key resistance trendline and inverse to USD weakness.
GBP/USD: Bearish – underperforming beneath a major trendline, with continued London selling pressure.
AUD/USD: Bearish – vulnerable to risk-off equity moves; prior long closed at breakeven.
USD/CHF: Bearish – CHF safe-haven strength; prefer USD shorts against CHF when USD declines.
JPY & CHF (individually): Bullish/safe-haven – gold holding near highs despite USD moves confirms demand; watch CHF and JPY crosses for early signals.

Major Asset & Equity Outlooks

Gold: Bullish – poised for 3 700 oz medium term and targeting 4 000+ oz long term. Supported by labor recession, Fed cuts and renewed safe-haven bids.
Equities: Cautious/Bearish – downside risks from recessionary data, Fed politicization, seasonal September weakness and geopolitical sanctions. Look to buy dips into October–November’s seasonal strength.
Crypto: Neutral-to-Bullish – small long positions held in Bitcoin and Solana; October–November seasonality remains supportive.

Summary

A clear risk-off backdrop has emerged: USD is set to weaken, safe havens (gold, JPY, CHF) to rally, and cyclical/risk assets (equities, commodity-linked FX) face headwinds.
Traders should align with the dovish Fed pivot and labor-market recession narrative by favoring real assets and safe havens over growth-sensitive and commodity-currency exposures.

Overall: Weak labor data and Fed rate cuts underpin dollar weakness and bolster gold and safe-haven currencies, while equities and commodity-linked FX struggle in this risk-off phase.

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of September 15, 2025)

Global Financial Condition Highlights * Fed on the cusp of rate cuts despite core inflation holding near 3 %, underscoring a stagflation backdrop (weakening labor market vs supply-driven price pressures). * Rising geopolitical tensions—US threats of broad tariffs on China and tougher sanctions on Russia—are shifting sentiment toward risk-off. * Soft PPI

Market Analysis - 2025-09-12

We’re seeing a clear stagflation backdrop: PPI and core CPI prints are in-line but labor-market data disappointed, while University of Michigan sentiment undershot and 5-year inflation expectations jumped. This mix virtually guarantees Fed rate cuts next week despite core inflation sitting above 3%, keeping downward pressure on the US

Market Summary (Sep 11, 2025)

We’ve seen yesterday’s PPI core at 2.8% YoY (vs. 3.5% expected) and headline at 2.6% YoY (vs. 3.3%), which pointed to a soft CPI—yet today’s headline and core CPI matched forecasts at 3.1% YoY and 0.3% MoM, while initial jobless

Market Summary (Sep 10, 2025)

We’ve seen a sharp downside surprise in US PPI, with headline printing 2.6% YoY vs. 3.3% expected and core at 2.8% vs. 3.5%. Given the historical 80–90% correlation between PPI and CPI surprises, we’re positioned for tomorrow’s CPI to undershoot, sharply increasing