market outlook

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of September 01, 2025)

Josh

01 Sep 2025 — 1 min read

Global Financial Condition Highlights

US macro data remains soft (Chicago PMI at 41.5 vs. 46 forecast), reinforcing a dovish Fed outlook.
Legal uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs (appeals court ruling “illegal,” pending Supreme Court review) may weigh on the USD via potential policy drift.
Liquidity is light into Labor Day weekend; trading tends to be choppy with lower participation.

Currencies & Forex Markets

USD (Overall): Bearish. Fed officials signal rate‐cut aspirations; PCE in line with expectations leaves the medium‐term dollar downtrend intact.
EURUSD: Bullish. Broad USD fatigue and dovish Fed keep euro bids intact; technical breakouts reinforce upside momentum.
EURGBP: Bullish. Supported by general dollar weakness and cyclical narratives (AI-led demand); longs remain active.
AUDUSD: Bullish. Daily bullish engulfing confirms continuation of the bearish USD theme; stop‐break adjustments favor risk-on flow.
USDJPY: Bearish bias. A go-to for dollar shorts once a clear trigger emerges; traders are scaling in smaller positions awaiting confirmation.
CAD: Neutral/slightly bearish. August GDP miss is “old news” and lacks conviction to alter policy outlook.

Major Asset & Equity Outlooks

Gold (XAU): Bullish. Weekly close poised to escape a multi-month pennant; 3,600 likely this week, 3,700 medium-term, 4,000 longer-term.
US Equities: Cautious. Nvidia earnings tonight set the tone; sub-100k NFP could trigger a 5%+ pullback next week.
Bitcoin & Crypto: Bullish (long-term). Small allocations in Bitcoin and Solana remain, targeting higher levels over coming quarters.

Summary

The USD remains under pressure from dovish Fed expectations, mixed macro prints, and tariff policy uncertainty.
Gold leads as the primary safe haven, breaking key technical structures.
In FX, maintain EURUSD, EURGBP, AUDUSD longs; watch USDJPY for a short entry.
Equities and risk assets face a pivotal NFP test Friday and Nvidia results tonight.

Overall: Dollar weakness and gold strength dominate the near‐term landscape; selective equity caution ahead of critical data/events.

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of September 15, 2025)

Global Financial Condition Highlights * Fed on the cusp of rate cuts despite core inflation holding near 3 %, underscoring a stagflation backdrop (weakening labor market vs supply-driven price pressures). * Rising geopolitical tensions—US threats of broad tariffs on China and tougher sanctions on Russia—are shifting sentiment toward risk-off. * Soft PPI

Market Analysis - 2025-09-12

We’re seeing a clear stagflation backdrop: PPI and core CPI prints are in-line but labor-market data disappointed, while University of Michigan sentiment undershot and 5-year inflation expectations jumped. This mix virtually guarantees Fed rate cuts next week despite core inflation sitting above 3%, keeping downward pressure on the US

Market Summary (Sep 11, 2025)

We’ve seen yesterday’s PPI core at 2.8% YoY (vs. 3.5% expected) and headline at 2.6% YoY (vs. 3.3%), which pointed to a soft CPI—yet today’s headline and core CPI matched forecasts at 3.1% YoY and 0.3% MoM, while initial jobless

Market Summary (Sep 10, 2025)

We’ve seen a sharp downside surprise in US PPI, with headline printing 2.6% YoY vs. 3.3% expected and core at 2.8% vs. 3.5%. Given the historical 80–90% correlation between PPI and CPI surprises, we’re positioned for tomorrow’s CPI to undershoot, sharply increasing