market outlook

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of October 27, 2025)

Josh

27 Oct 2025 — 1 min read

Global Financial Condition Highlights

US–China trade talks reached a consensus in Kuala Lumpur, averting the risk of 100% tariffs and rare-earth export curbs.
US CPI (October) printed softer than expected, reinforcing dovish Fed expectations ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC.
“Risk-on” sentiment prevails: equities, commodities, and procyclical currencies are bid; safe havens are under pressure.

Currencies & Forex Markets

EUR/USD: Bullish – supported by soft US CPI and dovish Fed bets. A short-term dip toward 1.16 may be bought ahead of the FOMC.
USD/JPY: Bullish – risk-on dynamics weigh more heavily on JPY than USD, so the pair has scope to grind higher.
AUD/USD & NZD/USD: Bullish – both benefit from improved US–China relations and carry into the week. Watch Australia’s CPI and BoJ votes for near-term noise.
USD/CHF: Bearish – CHF loses safe-haven support in a risk-on backdrop.
EUR/CHF: Bearish – limited SNB intervention and strong EUR bids keep downside pressure on CHF crosses.
AUD/NZD: Mixed – longer-term bearish bias remains among some institutional players, but overall risk appetite supports both legs.

Major Asset & Equity Outlooks

Gold (XAU/USD): Bullish medium term – recent pullback to the 3,900–4,000 area has been orderly. A break above ~4,160 should confirm resumption toward the 4,400 region and beyond. Structural drivers (Fed cuts, portfolio diversification, geopolitical risks) underpin a 4,900 end-2026 target.
Equities (Global indices): Bullish near term – risk-on flows and trade optimism should lift major indices at the open (e.g., DAX, S&P 500, NASDAQ).
Bitcoin & Solana: Bullish long term – existing positions remain in place, with structural adoption trends intact. Tailwinds from traditional diversification and ongoing digital‐asset inflows support higher levels.

Summary

US–China de-escalation and a soft CPI print have shifted the tone decidedly risk-on, pressuring safe-haven FX and boosting procyclicals.
USD weakness is broad, but JPY underperformance keeps USD/JPY buoyant.
Gold’s corrective phase is extending value, and a clean break of key resistance (~4,160) will signal a renewed leg higher.
Equities and selected commodities stand to benefit into the FOMC, where dovish Fed guidance is expected to reinforce current trends.

Overall: A risk-on regime, underpinned by trade optimism and dovish monetary policy expectations, favors procyclical assets while undermining traditional safe havens.

Market Summary (Oct 29, 2025)

We remain constructive on gold despite the recent shake-out, as central banks continue to diversify into bullion (gold now represents roughly 30% of FX+gold reserves) and our long-term fair-value model points toward much higher levels. Tomorrow’s FOMC is the next key catalyst: a dovish Fed would likely send

Market Summary (Oct 28, 2025)

We see gold caught in a sharp pullback as markets price in the immediate 25 bp Fed cut, but our macro bias remains firmly bullish: ongoing central-bank accumulation, de-dollarization trends and dovish Fed rhetoric should drive a resumption above the 4,160–4,200 area once technical structure confirms. Oil

Market Summary (Oct 24, 2025)

We’re entering US CPI day with gold poised to rally in either scenario—soft data would cement a dovish Fed view and hot prints would stoke stagflation fears—keeping safe-haven flows supported around the low-4,000s and trendline support near 4,036. Volatility remains elevated, so knee-jerk moves are

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of October 20, 2025)

Global Financial Condition Highlights * Sino-U.S. trade tensions remain the primary driver. Recent stop-start de-escalation headlines have produced whipsaw risk-on/risk-off flows. * The Fed’s dovish tone and announcement that Quantitative Tightening will end in coming months support risk assets and weigh on the USD, but geopolitics currently override monetary