market outlook

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of November 26, 2025)

Josh

26 Nov 2025 — 1 min read

Global Financial Condition Highlights

Fed officials (Williams via X.com) underscored “room for a near-term rate cut” and flagged rising downside risks to employment, pushing December cut odds to ~80%.
The BLS’s decision to delay October/November NFP releases until after the Dec. 10 FOMC meeting reduces fresh data ahead of the decision, heightening pre‐meeting uncertainty.
UK macro prints remain soft (retail sales, labour, GDP), and divergent policy paths at the BoJ (likely hike) vs RBA/RBNZ vs BoE add layered volatility across G10 FX.

Currencies & Forex Markets

USD: Bearish. Markets have repriced a December rate cut and a more dovish Fed chair prospect (Hassett), weighing on the greenback.
EUR/USD: Bullish medium term toward ~1.1750+ on Fed easing; awaits technical confirmation (daily closes above recent highs) before scaling in.
GBP: Bearish vs EUR and USD on weak retail sales (–1.1% MoM), deteriorating labour metrics and fiscal drag—BoE cuts likely.
JPY: Neutral–mixed. BoJ rate hike expectations are offset by heavy fiscal stimulus and intervention risk; best to sidestep outright positions.
AUD/NZD: Bearish AUD/NZD; RBNZ is more aggressively cutting than the RBA, favoring NZD strength over AUD.
EUR/GBP: Bullish theme intact but no clear trigger; technical setup must evolve before committing.

Major Asset & Equity Outlooks

Gold: Bullish backdrop from Fed easing and geopolitical tail-risks, but short-term noise (Ukraine peace-deal murmur, Venezuela tensions) demands caution around new entries.
S&P 500 & Equities: Supported by December rate-cut repricing and year-end seasonal upside; sensitive to upcoming labour data (NFP scenarios).
Nvidia & Tech Sector: Q3 earnings (today) will be a key catalyst for risk appetite and sector rotation.
VIX: Holding above 20 signals a mild risk-off pulse; further labour-market surprises could drive spikes.

Summary

A December Fed rate cut is now viewed as highly probable, steering USD weakness and supporting euro-paires.
Soft UK data and central-bank divergence continue to shape cross-rate opportunities, with JPY pairs best approached cautiously.
Gold and equities retain a constructive lean but require both technical confirmation and clarity on geopolitical developments.

Overall: Dovish Fed signals and elevated December cut odds underpin a bearish dollar and tilt the bias toward EUR/USD, gold and risk assets—yet measured patience and technical validation remain paramount.

Market Summary (Nov 27, 2025)

We remain positioned for a softer US dollar as markets ramp up expectations for a December Fed rate cut and a highly dovish incoming Fed chair. EUR/USD is eyeing a break back above the 1.1600 area, while NZD/USD – having seen the RBNZ pause its tightening cycle – could

Market Summary (Nov 20, 2025)

We see the US dollar grind higher after hawkish-leaning FOMC minutes and the revelation that October/November payroll data won’t arrive until after the Dec. 10 Fed meeting—cutting the market’s December rate-cut odds to roughly 30%. Today’s delayed September NFP print was mixed (119k jobs added,

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of November 17, 2025)

Global Financial Condition Highlights * U.S. labor data shows growing weakness (ADP down, September NFP is old news but likely soft), reinforcing expectations for a December Fed rate cut. Fed voting is split, but a weak jobs report should push cut odds from ~45% toward 80%. * Government shutdown has ended,

Market Summary (Nov 14, 2025)

We note that the US government shutdown has ended but markets remain risk-off as participants digest hawkish Fed rhetoric – several voting members have signaled a preference to hold rates into year-end, pushing December cut odds lower and leaving the bar high for further easing. In FX, EUR is showing resilience