market outlook

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of November 17, 2025)

Josh

— 1 min read

Global Financial Condition Highlights

  • U.S. labor data shows growing weakness (ADP down, September NFP is old news but likely soft), reinforcing expectations for a December Fed rate cut. Fed voting is split, but a weak jobs report should push cut odds from ~45% toward 80%.
  • Government shutdown has ended, removing near-term uncertainty and allowing fresh economic releases to flow.
  • Central banks are diverging: RBA is set to hold rates (relatively hawkish), ECB policy probabilities tracked on ecb-watch.eu, BoJ hiking odds remain low (~30%).

Currencies & Forex Markets

  • USD: Bearish – Fed cut odds rising as labor market softens, undermining dollar into year-end.
  • EURUSD: Bullish – positioned to benefit from USD weakness; strategists maintain a medium-term long bias.
  • GBPUSD: Bearish – UK faces stagflation (high inflation, low growth), keeping sterling under pressure.
  • USDJPY: Mixed – no clear catalyst yet; trading range likely until BoJ/Fed signals crystallize.
  • AUDUSD: Mildly Bullish – RBA’s hold decision is hawkish relative to other majors, though equity sentiment remains a drag.
  • EURAUD: Bullish – euro strength versus an equity-linked AUD.
  • NZDUSD: Neutral/Bullish – technical channels suggest strength but fundamental drivers are lacking.

Major Asset & Equity Outlooks

  • Gold: Bullish – long-term uptrend intact. Waiting for corrective pullbacks (near 4050–4100) to re-engage longs; broader Fed-cut narrative supports higher highs.
  • Equities (S&P 500 & Tech): Cautious – broad “everything sell-off” in crowded trades; avoid aggressive dip-buys until volatility subsides.
  • Crypto (Bitcoin & Alts): Long-term Bullish, Short-term Bumpy – policy-driven rate cuts eventually supportive (BTC toward ~180 k), but expect choppy action ahead.

Summary

  • The biggest driver is Fed policy: as U.S. labor market weakness forces December rate cuts, the dollar should soften.
  • Capitalize on USD decline via EURUSD and gold; remain patient on equities and crypto until liquidity conditions stabilize.
  • Monitor central bank commentary (Fed minutes, ECB watch, RBA tracker) alongside incoming data for trade triggers.

Overall: A pivot to Fed easing amid labor weakness sets the stage for dollar softness—favor gold and the euro, exercise caution on equities and near-term crypto.

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