market outlook

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of November 10, 2025)

Josh

— 1 min read

Global Financial Condition Highlights

  • US government shutdown has ended, removing a key uncertainty that had forced the Fed to “pause.”
  • Fed-funds futures now price in roughly a 66% chance of a December rate cut, up from ~63% last week.
  • Pending rescheduling of delayed labor‐market data (unemployment claims, September NFP) may reinforce dovish bias.

Currencies & Forex Markets

  • USD (Overall): Slightly bearish. Shutdown resolution and dovish Fed commentary lift cut odds, undercutting broad dollar strength.
  • EUR/USD: Bearish on rallies into ~1.1550. Dollar support from Fed dynamics offsets Euro’s pullbacks; waiting for technical rejection at that resistance.
  • GBP/USD: Bearish. UK faces fiscal strains, high inflation yet split BoE vote (5-4) signals December easing; sterling under pressure.
  • USD/CHF: Bullish. Despite an expected rate‐cut cycle, the dollar’s yield advantage and institutional positioning favor further upside.
  • AUD/NZD: Mixed-to-bearish. Interest‐rate differentials still supportive of AUD, but momentum signals and a top‐of-range bias suggest scope for a pullback.
  • USD/JPY: Uncertain. JPY outlook muddied by persistent Japanese QE signals and political spending plans; large moves possible but no clear directional signal.

Major Asset & Equity Outlooks

  • Gold (XAU/USD): Bullish (long term). End of shutdown ► higher cut odds ► lower real yields ► gold bid. Short-term technical trigger needed (break above recent highs) before adding fresh exposure; existing position now at breakeven.
  • S&P 500: Neutral to slightly bullish. A more dovish Fed outlook and stimulus prospects underpin equities, though near-term catalysts remain mixed.
  • Bitcoin & Solana: Bullish. Medium-term long positions intact; target ~150 K for BTC and ~500 for SOL on continued digital‐asset rotation.

Summary

  • The end of the US shutdown lifts Fed cutting odds, weighing on the dollar overall but keeping selective USD pairs supported on technical setups.
  • Euro and sterling remain vulnerable to Fed-dollar strength and local policy risks.
  • Gold continues to lead on dovish Fed expectations; technical breakouts will guide new entries.
  • Equities and crypto maintain a mild risk-on tilt, but look for labor data and Fed speakers to set the next leg.

Overall: The market sees a higher probability of Fed easing in December, favoring gold and risk assets, while keeping major dollar crosses in play around key technical levels.

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