market outlook

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of November 05, 2025)

Josh

— 2 min read

Global Financial Condition Highlights

  • The Fed’s October 29 press conference was decidedly hawkish: December rate cut “far from a forgone conclusion,” with committee views highly split. Markets have repriced December cut odds from ~95% to ~40-45%.
  • Ongoing U.S. government shutdown delays key economic releases, reinforcing near-term data uncertainty and potentially amplifying labor-market weakness.
  • Trump–Xi trade deal and Venezuela headlines are largely priced in; geopolitical risks remain supportive of safe-haven assets.

Currencies & Forex Markets

  • USD (DXY): Bullish
    Hawkish Fed guidance and fading December cut expectations fuel further dollar strength across pairs.
  • EURUSD: Bearish
    Short-term trendline break followed by a retest led to a decline toward the 1.1470–1.1500 area. Next setup lies on any rally back near 1.1550.
  • GBPUSD: Bearish
    UK fiscal deterioration and underwhelming growth prospects weigh on sterling. Watch for technical triggers—likely to underperform EURUSD.
  • AUDNZD: Bearish
    Underlying Australian-New Zealand rate differential still favors AUD downside. Recent hot Australian CPI stalled the move, but structural easing bias remains.
  • USDJPY: Neutral–Slightly Bullish
    Dollar strength supports USDJPY, but lack of a high-conviction catalyst keeps view cautious. No clear breakout signal yet.
  • Other Majors:
  • USDCHF: Bullish on broad USD strength.
  • USDCAD: Bullish, reinforced by hawkish Fed vs. neutral BOC tone.

Major Asset & Equity Outlooks

  • GOLD: Bullish (long-term) but facing a short-term pullback
  • Structural drivers remain intact: central-bank accumulation, de-dollarization, loss of Fed independence, geopolitical uncertainty.
  • Fed hawkishness and China de-escalation have pressured gold back toward ~3,900–3,850. Await a clear technical base or trendline break for the next leg higher toward long-term targets near 4,900.
  • SILVER: Bullish drivers mirror gold, but increased industrial demand and ETF flows keep it volatile.
  • OIL (Brent & WTI): Mixed
  • Geopolitical supply risks support prices, but shifting macro sentiment and inventory builds cap upside. Technical setups for short‐term pullbacks have been probed.
  • Equities & S&P 500: Cautious Bullish
  • U.S. equity markets may grind higher, but heightened recession risks, hawkish Fed tone, and policy uncertainty warrant a neutral-to-defensive stance. Avoid outright bearish positions.
  • CRYPTO: Modestly Bearish
  • Faces headwinds from USD strength and broader risk-off flows; remains range-bound absent a clear catalyst.

Summary

  • The dominant theme is dollar strength amid a hawkish Fed and uncertain U.S. data flow.
  • EURUSD and GBPUSD remain the primary bearish setups, with fresh shorts expected on technical retests.
  • Gold retains its long-term bull thesis but needs a clean technical base to re-engage longs.
  • Equities may meander higher, yet macro and policy risks advise caution.

Overall: A hawkish Fed and U.S. political gridlock underpin a stronger dollar, short-term pressure on precious metals and cyclical commodities, and selective opportunities to short major pairs on rallies, while long-term bullion bulls remain intact.

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