market outlook

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of May 19, 2025)

Josh

19 May 2025 — 1 min read

Global Financial Condition Highlights

US credit rating cut from AAA to Aa1 (Moody’s) has reintroduced credit risk into Treasuries, fueling safe-haven demand.
Ukraine-Russia direct talks failed to yield a ceasefire; fresh European/US sanctions look imminent, adding to risk-off pressures.
Soft US inflation prints (CPI/PPI below expectations; University of Michigan 1-yr at 7.3%) and rising inflation expectations point to a dovish Fed bias.

Currencies & Forex Markets

USD: Short-to-medium term bullish on resilient Fed/Treasury support and trade-deal optimism; long term bearish (10–15% downtrend expected) as Trump cuts rates and targets “currency manipulations.”
EUR/USD: Bullish—watch for a daily close above 1.1225 and a break of the April-high trendline to trigger further upside as risk-off flows shift away from USD.
USD/CHF: Neutral to bearish—soft US data and dovish Fed outlook keep USD/CHF near breakeven. Existing longs from ~0.8320 target 0.8680 but face renewed USD downside risk.
USD/JPY: Bearish—new short at ~145.95 (TP 138.30, SL 149.40) anticipating US yield softening and JPY safe-haven appeal if risk aversion intensifies.
AUD/USD: Marginally bullish—RBA set to cut 25 bps on May 20; “hawkish cut” guidance should lend modest support to AUD ahead of broader USD moves.

Major Asset & Equity Outlooks

Gold: Bullish—technical break of May 1 lows and US credit downgrade support longs at 3,216 (TP 3,438, key area 3,300). Stagflation vibes and safe-haven flows underpin further gains.
US Equities: Neutral to bearish—positive sentiment likely to persist into mid-July (tariff-pause optimism), but expiration of trade-deal pauses (mid-July/Mid-August) and potential bond outflows mark Friday’s high for the next few weeks.
Cryptocurrencies: Bullish long term—Solana long from ~243 (TG 500) and Bitcoin long from 91.2k (TG 140k) remain intact; institutional flows and macro adoption support gradual appreciation.

Summary

Markets balance near-term risk-on optimism against growing risk-off catalysts. The USD is poised for short-term strength but faces a strategic long-term decline. Gold and JPY stand out as safe havens, while equities and high-beta USD pairs warrant caution beyond mid-summer. Cryptos and EUR/USD offer upside in a continued risk-off backdrop.

Overall: Stay defensively tilted—lean into gold and JPY, monitor USD pullbacks for EUR/AUD opportunities, and brace for volatility around upcoming geopolitical and tariff milestones.

Market Summary (Jun 12, 2025)

Risk sentiment has been buoyed by a dovish US CPI print (Core MoM 0.1% vs 0.3% forecast) and soft PPI, underscoring fading tariff-inflation fears and setting the stage for renewed Fed rate-cut speculation—boosting equities, crypto and high-beta FX (AUD, NZD, CAD) while keeping the USD under pressure.

Market Summary (Jun 11, 2025)

US-China trade talks wrapped up with a framework to uphold the Geneva deal—enough to avert escalation but nothing to spark a big rally. That leaves markets in a mild risk-on mode: equities (S&P 500, Nasdaq) grinding higher toward all-time highs, safe havens (gold, CHF, JPY) under pressure,

Market Summary (Jun 10, 2025)

US-China trade talks resume in London today, and the market is pricing in another modestly positive outcome—enough to keep risk appetite up but unlikely to deliver fresh tariff cuts. Equities and high-beta currencies (AUD, NZD) remain under tailwinds, while traditional safe-havens (gold, CHF, JPY) have come under pressure. Gold’

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of June 09, 2025)

Global Financial Condition Highlights * US labor market is softening: ADP rose just +37k in May, ISM services declined, initial jobless claims jumped to 247k, and the June NFP printed 139k (vs. 126k expected) with downward revisions to March-April. * Second round of US-China trade talks kicks off in London; markets expect