market outlook

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of June 16, 2025)

Josh

16 Jun 2025 — 1 min read

Global Financial Condition Highlights

Geopolitical risk premium easing as Israel-Iran strikes pause and hopes for diplomacy rise.
US CPI and PPI came in softer than expected, reinforcing expectations of Fed rate cuts.
Central bank demand for Gold remains elevated, while USD comes under renewed pressure.

Currencies & Forex Markets

USD: Bearish – soft inflation prints and a dovish Fed path weigh on the dollar. De-escalation in the Middle East further undermines safe-haven support.
AUD/USD & NZD/USD: Bullish – high-beta currencies rally on improved risk sentiment and USD weakness.
AUD/JPY: Bullish – benefiting from both a softer JPY (as safe-haven flows unwind) and broader risk-on flows.
USD/JPY & USD/CHF: Bearish – safe havens give back earlier gains amid calmer geopolitical outlook.
CAD: Mildly Bullish – supported by crude strength over the weekend, but facing headwinds if Oil reverses.

Major Asset & Equity Outlooks

Equities (S&P 500, NASDAQ): Bullish – dovish Fed expectations, soft US inflation, and fade in regional tensions underpin further upside.
Gold: Bullish (medium term) – structural supports (central-bank buying, inflation hedging, dedollarization) intact; tactically vulnerable to short-term pullbacks on de-escalation.
Oil (Brent): Bearish (medium term) – initial weekend gap higher priced in risk premium; absent further supply shocks (e.g., Hormuz closure), oil is likely to give back gains.
Bitcoin & Crypto: Bullish – low real yields and Fed easing expectations fuel continued crypto appetite.

Summary

The market is shifting back into a risk-on regime as Fed rate-cut odds rise and the Israel-Iran flare-up shows signs of pause.
USD weakness and safe-haven unwinds support equities and high-beta currencies, while Gold retains its longer-term bull case despite near-term moderations.
Oil’s weekend spike appears a tactical move, with medium-term pressures mounting unless geopolitical frictions re-intensify.

Overall: A dovish Fed outlook and fading conflict premium favor risk assets and high-beta FX; Gold remains structurally supported, while Oil’s next move hinges on renewed regional escalation.

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We expect today’s FOMC to lean dovish—two dissenters and Fed guidance toward a September cut should weigh on the USD and lift gold, which remains anchored above the $3,200/oz support level. Secondary 100% tariffs on any country buying Russian goods, plus still-high U.S. trade levies

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of July 29, 2025)

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