market outlook

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of June 09, 2025)

Josh

— 2 min read

Global Financial Condition Highlights

  • US labor market is softening: ADP rose just +37k in May, ISM services declined, initial jobless claims jumped to 247k, and the June NFP printed 139k (vs. 126k expected) with downward revisions to March-April.
  • Second round of US-China trade talks kicks off in London; markets expect upbeat spin rather than tariff rollbacks, supporting risk assets in the near term.
  • Tariff uncertainty from April 2 remains a medium-term drag on growth, keeping the Fed on the sidelines.

Currencies & Forex Markets

  • EUR/USD (Bullish)
    Long-term uptrend intact on softer US data and eventual tariff flare-ups. Short-term dips toward 1.1360–1.1380 (post-ECB press conference) are viewed as buying opportunities.
  • USD/CHF & USD/JPY (Bearish)
    Short-lived USD strength on trade-talk optimism gives way to a broader dollar downtrend as labor softness resurfaces; safe-haven CHF and JPY under pressure in risk-on phases.
  • AUD/USD & NZD/USD (Bullish)
    High-beta pairs are faring well on improved risk sentiment and China-linked demand. Look for levels above 0.67 (AUD) and 0.61 (NZD) as next objective zones.
  • GBP/USD (Bullish)
    Buoyed by broader EUR strength and positive risk tone; 1.3800 remains a key psychological resistance.
  • EUR/GBP (Neutral-to-Bullish)
    Longer-term bullish EUR view persists, though trade-talk headlines and Trump tweets will continue to spark volatility.

Major Asset & Equity Outlooks

  • Gold (Bullish)
    Year-end target ~3700 remains intact. Expect a short-term pullback toward the low-3100s on easing trade-tension catalysts—ideal for adding positions ahead of renewed macro escalation.
  • Equities (Bullish)
    Risk-on tilt from US-China cooperation and a non-recessionary labor market underpins global equity rallies, especially cyclicals and emerging-market stocks.
  • Oil (Neutral-to-Bearish)
    WTI has formed a quadruple top and is vulnerable to growth concerns; watch for further consolidation or mild downside.
  • Cryptocurrencies (Bullish)
    Long positions in Solana (target ~500) and Bitcoin (target ~140k) persist, supported by on-chain momentum and overarching risk appetite.

Summary

  • Data flow confirms a slowing but not collapsing US labor market.
  • US-China talks provide fleeting risk-on impetus, pressuring safe havens and the dollar in the short run.
  • The broader macro backdrop—tariff uncertainty coupled with Fed vigilance—favours a weaker USD over coming months, a stronger EUR, and renewed bullish bias for gold and cyclicals.

Overall: In a world of mixed data and trade-talk theatrics, short-term risk-on spikes are trumped by the larger story of slowing US growth and lingering tariff risk, keeping the dollar on the back foot and underpinning bullish positions in EUR, gold, and high-beta assets.

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