market outlook

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of July 21, 2025)

Josh

21 Jul 2025 — 1 min read

Global Financial Condition Highlights

Fed leadership uncertainty – persistent rumors around Chair Powell’s potential dismissal keep the USD under pressure and bolster safe-haven demand.
Softer US producer inflation – June core PPI undershot forecasts, reinforcing a dovish tilt for monetary policy.
Geopolitical tensions – tariff threats on EU goods and continued Ukraine support underpin refuge flows into gold and crypto.

Currencies & Forex Markets

USD (DXY): Bearish. Leadership risk at the Fed combined with soft PPI prints undermines the dollar’s appeal.
EUR/USD: Bullish. A clear daily close above the 1.18 bear‐channel resistance would signal the next leg toward 1.20+.
JPY Pairs (e.g. NZD/JPY, GBP/JPY): Yen-positive bias over the next 30 days driven by seasonal strength and Japanese election–related gaps at the open.
GBP/JPY: Bearish. A double‐top pattern on the daily chart points to further yen appreciation.

Major Asset & Equity Outlooks

Gold (XAU/USD): Bullish. Tail risk of a Powell exit, dovish inflation data, and tariff/geopolitical strains support a medium-term push toward 3,700.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) & Ethereum (ETH/USD): Bullish. Viewed as digital counterpart to gold in a “debasement” environment; ETH faces resistance near $4,100 before targeting ~$5,000.
US Equities (S&P 500): Vulnerable. A weaker dollar and safe-haven rotation could pressure equities, especially if Fed uncertainty intensifies.

Summary

The dominant theme is dollar weakness amid Fed-related tail risks and cooler inflation readings.
Safe-havens (gold, major cryptocurrencies) remain preferred, while tactical opportunities may emerge on key technical breaks in FX.
Watch EUR/USD for a decisive channel breakout and gold trendlines for the next actionable signal.

Overall: A dovish, risk-off backdrop favors gold and crypto rallies alongside selective FX moves against the USD.

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of July 29, 2025)

Global Financial Condition Highlights * Trade tensions eased as the US-Japan deal (15% reciprocal tariffs; $550 bn investment) and a 15% US-EU tariff compromise were finalized, removing major sources of uncertainty. * Fed poised to adopt a dovish tone at Wednesday’s FOMC, laying groundwork for a September rate cut; President Trump’

Market Summary (Jul 25, 2025)

We’re seeing a risk-on tilt as US–EU trade talks edge toward a deal, reducing tariff uncertainty. That dynamic is weighing on safe havens—gold may test its recent support just above 3 300 before resuming an uptrend, and the yen is under pressure as BoJ policy stays dovish

Market Summary (Jul 23, 2025)

We’re seeing a clear shift into risk-on mode after the US–Japan trade deal removed significant tariff uncertainty and paved the way for stronger equity, commodity and high-beta FX demand (AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP). At the same time, a dovish Bank of Japan and political turnover in Tokyo are

Market Summary (Jul 18, 2025)

We continue to view gold as fundamentally bullish amid lingering Fed uncertainty and mixed U.S. data, with the metal holding above its higher-timeframe support trendline and bumping up against near-term resistance around $3,350. While short-term chop may persist without a fresh catalyst, a decisive breakout would reinforce the