market outlook

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of July 14, 2025)

Josh

14 Jul 2025 — 1 min read

Global Financial Condition Highlights

Escalating U.S.–China/Canada/Europe tariff threats are driving a broader risk-off stance.
Political pressure on Fed Chair Powell (rumors of forced resignation) undermines dollar credibility.
Incoming announcements (Russia sanctions, U.S. CPI) add to near-term uncertainty and safe-haven demand.

Currencies & Forex Markets

USD (Dollar Index): Bearish. Ongoing threats to Fed independence, coupled with tariff-induced volatility, undermine dollar support.
EUR/USD: Moderately Bearish near-term. Tariff letters to the EU could prompt a 40–50-pip gap lower at Monday open, though downside may quickly fade if a last-minute deal emerges.
EUR/GBP: Moderately Bullish longer-term. Big-picture euro strength vs. pound amid U.K. growth worries, but limited tactical setups in the very short run.
GBP/AUD: Neutral to Slight Bullish. Short-term pullbacks may offer selective buy zones, though geopolitical and U.K. data (CPI/GDP) remain key.
AUD/JPY: Closed positions; minor relevance currently as focus shifts to safe-havens.

Major Asset & Equity Outlooks

GOLD: Strongly Bullish. Tariff escalation, Powell-removal risk, potential Russia sanctions and seasonal patterns support a push toward 3 500+, with a likely 10–30 pt opening gap higher.
SILVER & Copper ETFs: Bullish longer-term. Silver parallels gold’s safe-haven bid; copper remains a structural play but better suited for multi-month horizons.
BITCOIN: Bullish. Exhibiting safe-haven characteristics in risk-off phases; seasonality into mid-July also turns favorable (see IGSquawk weekend update).
U.S. Equities (S&P 500, NASDAQ): Cautious/Bearish. Tariff uncertainty and possible Fed-policy shake-ups increase pullback risk after recent highs.
TESLA: Neutral. Longer-term outlook clouded by CEO’s political entanglements; fundamentals and auto-cycle factors remain the ultimate drivers.

Summary

Safe-havens (gold, silver, bitcoin) are poised to benefit from a converging set of bearish catalysts for risk assets and the U.S. dollar.
Short-term EUR/USD may gap lower on EU-tariff news but lacks conviction without a confirmed breakdown.
U.S. equities face headwinds as tariff rhetoric intensifies and Fed independence is threatened.
Key near-term event: tomorrow’s U.S. CPI print alongside Trump’s Russia announcement will likely reinforce safe-haven flows.

Overall: Risk-off dynamics dominate—favor precious metals and select cryptos, stay cautious on the dollar and equities.

Market Summary (Jul 30, 2025)

We expect today’s FOMC to lean dovish—two dissenters and Fed guidance toward a September cut should weigh on the USD and lift gold, which remains anchored above the $3,200/oz support level. Secondary 100% tariffs on any country buying Russian goods, plus still-high U.S. trade levies

Market Summary and Key Outlook (as of July 29, 2025)

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Market Summary (Jul 25, 2025)

We’re seeing a risk-on tilt as US–EU trade talks edge toward a deal, reducing tariff uncertainty. That dynamic is weighing on safe havens—gold may test its recent support just above 3 300 before resuming an uptrend, and the yen is under pressure as BoJ policy stays dovish

Market Summary (Jul 23, 2025)

We’re seeing a clear shift into risk-on mode after the US–Japan trade deal removed significant tariff uncertainty and paved the way for stronger equity, commodity and high-beta FX demand (AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP). At the same time, a dovish Bank of Japan and political turnover in Tokyo are